Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, May 22, 2026
Top hits spot: Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is hitting .210 H/PA against righties this year — and .314 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .478 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Tomoyuki Sugano too — .500 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Willy Adames (SF) (93) vs RHP Davis Martin: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316).
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (90) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.240).
- José Ramírez (CLE) (84) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (83) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a league-average bat at .217 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.478), hot bat.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (82) vs RHP Michael Soroka: a strong bat at .263 into an arm tough on the same side (.188).
- Nick Gonzales (PIT) (81) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: an excellent bat at .298 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.231).
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (81) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .247 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.478), due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been vulnerable to righties — .285 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Ildemaro Vargas (AZ).
- RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Colby Thomas (ATH), and Shea Langeliers (ATH).
- LHP Richard Lovelady has been giving up plenty to lefties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Matt Olson (ATL), Mauricio Dubón (ATL), and Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL).
- RHP Gavin Williams has been giving up plenty to righties — .256 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Bohm (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Brandon Marsh (PHI).
Platoon edges to target
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .210 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .284 against righties this year.
- José Ramírez (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .281 against lefties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .159 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), Casey Schmitt (SF), Carson Benge (NYM), Daulton Varsho (TOR), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX). Cold but due to bounce back: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Aaron Judge (NYY), Hunter Goodman (COL), Andrés Chaparro (WSH), and J.P. Crawford (SEA).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ketel Marte finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.