Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, May 23, 2026
Top hits spot: Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is hitting .213 H/PA against righties this year — and .343 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties lately — .280 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 12 career PA against Michael Lorenzen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (85) vs RHP Adrian Houser: a strong bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (83) vs RHP Chris Paddack: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286), hot bat.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) (83) vs RHP Jake Irvin: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (82) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm tough on the same side (.174).
- Luis Arraez (SF) (81) vs LHP Bryan Hudson: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (80) vs RHP Chase Petty: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (79) vs RHP Andre Pallante: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .280 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ketel Marte (AZ), Corbin Carroll (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
- LHP Patrick Corbin has been vulnerable to lefties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Konnor Griffin (PIT), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
- LHP Robert Gasser has been vulnerable to lefties — .261 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Mookie Betts (LAD).
- RHP Chris Paddack has been giving up plenty to righties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), JJ Wetherholt (STL), and Iván Herrera (STL).
Platoon edges to target
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .213 against righties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .276 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year.
- Michael Harris II (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .304 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ketel Marte (AZ), Alec Burleson (STL), Alec Burleson (STL), Corbin Carroll (AZ), Nick Gonzales (PIT), and Carlos Cortes (ATH). Cold but due to bounce back: Bryan Reynolds (PIT), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Christian Yelich (MIL), and Travis Bazzana (CLE).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Ketel Marte finished with 3 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.