Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, May 25, 2026
Top hits spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. The lefty is hitting .208 H/PA against righties this year — and .298 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .375 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .222 in 9 career PA against Tanner Gordon. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Carson Benge (NYM) (95) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .268 into an arm tough on the same side (.188), due to bounce back.
- Willy Adames (SF) (95) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .270 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Carlos Cortes (ATH) (87) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a strong bat at .265 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263), hot bat.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (84) vs RHP Ben Brown: a strong bat at .262 into an arm tough on the same side (.207).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (82) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a strong bat at .253 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (82) vs RHP Janson Junk: a solid bat at .240 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.368).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (82) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a solid bat at .236 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.231), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting tattooed by lefties — .292 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).
- RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting tattooed by righties — .291 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Shohei Ohtani (LAD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Teoscar Hernández (LAD).
- RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .289 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Nathan Lukes (TOR), Yohendrick Piñango (TOR), and Myles Straw (TOR).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Willy Adames (SF), Luis Arraez (SF), and Casey Schmitt (SF).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .208 against righties this year.
- Carlos Cortes (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .288 against righties this year.
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .240 against righties this year.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .233 against lefties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Carlos Cortes (ATH), Junior Caminero (TB), Blake Dunn (CIN), Ketel Marte (AZ), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Brice Turang (MIL). Cold but due to bounce back: Carson Benge (NYM), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Sam Antonacci (CWS), Braden Shewmake (HOU), and Manny Machado (SD).
How it played out
8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.