Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, May 27, 2026
Top hits spot: Orlando Arcia
Orlando Arcia (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP David Sandlin. The righty is hitting .556 H/PA against righties this year — and .556 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And David Sandlin has been thin against righties lately — — hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against David Sandlin. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) (99) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.320).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (96) vs RHP Trevor McDonald: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm tough on the same side (.130), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (93) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .260 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.222).
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (93) vs LHP Noah Cameron: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm tough on the same side (.188).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (91) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a strong bat at .267 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Carson Benge (NYM) (90) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a strong bat at .265 into an arm tough on the same side (.067).
- Chandler Simpson (TB) (88) vs RHP Trey Gibson: a strong bat at .261 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Mike Burrows has been vulnerable to righties — .277 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Haggerty (TEX), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
- RHP Bryce Elder has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Willson Contreras (BOS), and Isiah Kiner-Falefa (BOS).
- RHP Walker Buehler has been vulnerable to righties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bryce Harper (PHI), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), and Bryson Stott (PHI).
Platoon edges to target
- Spencer Horwitz (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .244 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .210 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .264 against lefties this year.
- Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .295 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Orlando Arcia (MIN), Ketel Marte (AZ), Willson Contreras (BOS), Willy Adames (SF), William Contreras (MIL), and Kevin McGonigle (DET). Cold but due to bounce back: Carlos Cortes (ATH), Brice Turang (MIL), Miguel Vargas (CWS), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Oliver Dunn (TB).
How it played out
9 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Orlando Arcia finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.