Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, June 4, 2026
Top hits spot: Wilyer Abreu
Wilyer Abreu (BOS) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Trevor Rogers. The lefty is hitting .373 H/PA against lefties this year — and .444 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 30% of his trips. And Trevor Rogers has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .300 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 4 career PA against Trevor Rogers. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Manzardo (CLE) (98) vs LHP Carlos Rodón: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.300).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (92) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: a solid bat at .250 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.304), hot bat.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) (91) vs RHP Lucas Giolito: an excellent bat at .292 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.300).
- José Ramírez (CLE) (89) vs LHP Carlos Rodón: an excellent bat at .278 into an arm tough on the same side (.121), hot bat.
- Henry Bolte (ATH) (89) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: a strong bat at .270 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.268).
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (89) vs RHP Adrian Houser: a solid bat at .242 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Jung Hoo Lee (SF) (89) vs RHP Coleman Crow: an elite bat at .321 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Jared Jones has been getting tattooed by righties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Taylor Trammell (HOU).
- RHP Adrian Houser has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Blake Perkins (MIL).
- LHP Mason Fluharty has been vulnerable to lefties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ozzie Albies (ATL), Mauricio Dubón (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
Platoon edges to target
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .258 against righties this year.
- Brandon Marsh (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .327 against righties this year.
- José Ramírez (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .291 against lefties this year.
- Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .400 against lefties this year.
- Christian Yelich (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .256 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Ben Rice (NYY), José Ramírez (CLE), Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Jarren Duran (BOS), Pete Alonso (BAL), and Paul Goldschmidt (NYY). Cold but due to bounce back: Chase DeLauter (CLE), Jonah Cox (SF), Buddy Kennedy (SF), Colton Cowser (BAL), and Carter Jensen (KC).
How it played out
7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Wilyer Abreu finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.