Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, March 29, 2026
Top home runs spot: Iván Herrera
Iván Herrera (STL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Steven Matz. The righty is going deep on — HR/PA against lefties this year, real bat that turns into a home run in about 4% of his trips. And Steven Matz has been thin against lefties lately — — home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Steven Matz, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (92) vs RHP Carmen Mlodzinski: real bat at .042 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (91) vs LHP MacKenzie Gore: real bat at .042 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (90) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: real bat at .044 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (87) vs RHP Shane Baz: solid bat at .040 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (87) vs RHP Nolan McLean: real bat at .044 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Brent Rooker (ATH) (85) vs LHP Eric Lauer: real bat at .041 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (85) vs LHP Eric Lauer: real bat at .043 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .400 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, 1.000 against lefties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Iván Herrera finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.