Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, March 30, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. The righty is going deep on .000 HR/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Luis Castillo has been thin against righties lately — — home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .222 in 18 career PA against Luis Castillo. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Mike Trout (LAA) (94) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: real bat at .043 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (93) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: real bat at .042 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (92) vs LHP Foster Griffin: real bat at .042 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (89) vs RHP Chris Bassitt: real bat at .041 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (87) vs RHP Bryce Elder: real bat at .043 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (85) vs RHP Walker Buehler: real bat at .040 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (85) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: real bat at .048 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .200 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .000 against lefties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.