Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, March 31, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Bibee. The lefty is going deep on .000 HR/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Tanner Bibee has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .188 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .273 in 11 career PA against Tanner Bibee. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (80) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (74) vs RHP Zach Eflin: real bat at .041 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), due to bounce back.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (73) vs RHP Andre Pallante: real bat at .042 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (71) vs LHP PJ Poulin: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (68) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: solid bat at .038 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Giancarlo Stanton (NYY) (65) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (64) vs LHP Max Fried: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .111 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .000 against lefties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.