Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, April 5, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Pete Fairbanks. The righty is going deep on .035 HR/PA against righties this year — and .035 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Pete Fairbanks has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .231 in 13 career PA against Pete Fairbanks. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (96) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: real bat at .049 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (90) vs RHP Lance McCullers Jr.: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (84) vs RHP Chase Burns: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (83) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: solid bat at .039 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (78) vs RHP Chris Bassitt: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (78) vs RHP Lance McCullers Jr.: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (77) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .150 against righties this year.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .238 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.