Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, April 6, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Max Scherzer. The lefty is going deep on .036 HR/PA against righties this year — and .036 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Max Scherzer has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 7 career PA against Max Scherzer. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (83) vs RHP Adrian Houser: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (75) vs RHP Germán Márquez: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (68) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: real bat at .044 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.031).
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (67) vs RHP Michael Wacha: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (67) vs RHP Brandon Woodruff: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.125).
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) (65) vs RHP Germán Márquez: solid bat at .035 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (59) vs RHP José Soriano: solid bat at .039 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .036 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .130 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .192 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.