Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, April 7, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kevin Gausman. The lefty is going deep on .032 HR/PA against righties this year — and .032 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Kevin Gausman has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 15 career PA against Kevin Gausman, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (77) vs RHP Aaron Civale: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (68) vs RHP Nick Pivetta: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (67) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (66) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .044 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.031).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (65) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (64) vs LHP Robbie Ray: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (64) vs RHP Aaron Civale: real bat at .041 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .032 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .100 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .097 against righties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.