Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, April 9, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jeffrey Springs. The righty is going deep on .286 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .286 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Jeffrey Springs has been keeping the ball in the park against lefties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .083 in 12 career PA against Jeffrey Springs, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Matt Wallner (MIN) (58) vs RHP Jack Flaherty: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Kerry Carpenter (DET) (48) vs RHP Mick Abel: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (42) vs RHP Jack Flaherty: solid bat at .038 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (41) vs RHP Seth Lugo: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (40) vs RHP Jimmy Herget: solid bat at .038 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (40) vs RHP Seth Lugo: solid bat at .037 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (39) vs RHP Nolan McLean: solid bat at .037 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.042).
Platoon edges to target
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .286 against lefties this year.
- Matt Wallner (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .077 against righties this year.
- Kerry Carpenter (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .029 against righties this year.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .059 against righties this year.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.