Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, April 10, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kumar Rocker. The lefty is going deep on .026 HR/PA against righties this year — and .026 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Kumar Rocker has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kumar Rocker too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (88) vs LHP Steven Matz: big-time bat at .052 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.033).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (82) vs RHP Michael Soroka: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (79) vs RHP Clay Holmes: real bat at .041 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040), hot bat.
- Corey Seager (TEX) (67) vs RHP Tyler Glasnow: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (60) vs RHP Bryce Elder: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (60) vs LHP Jesús Luzardo: solid bat at .040 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.026).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (59) vs RHP Slade Cecconi: real bat at .041 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .026 against righties this year.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .200 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .097 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.