Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, April 13, 2026
Top home runs spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Javier Assad. The lefty is going deep on .093 HR/PA against righties this year — and .075 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Javier Assad has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Javier Assad too — .364 across 11 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (99) vs LHP Yusei Kikuchi: big-time bat at .050 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (93) vs RHP Ryne Nelson: real bat at .040 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.080), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (89) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (83) vs RHP Luis Severino: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (70) vs LHP David Peterson: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (67) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- José Ramírez (CLE) (67) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: real bat at .041 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .093 against righties this year.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .154 against lefties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .022 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 2 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.