Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, April 12, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jacob deGrom. The lefty is going deep on .043 HR/PA against righties this year — and .054 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Jacob deGrom has been homer-prone to righties lately — .045 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Jacob deGrom too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (71) vs RHP Zac Gallen: real bat at .049 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (65) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.059).
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (63) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) (62) vs RHP Adrian Houser: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (59) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: real bat at .040 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (57) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050), due to bounce back.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (57) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .043 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .103 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .091 against righties this year.
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .000 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.