Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, April 18, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is going deep on .050 HR/PA against righties this year — and .068 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .091 in 11 career PA against Ryan Feltner, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (64) vs RHP Drew Rasmussen: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (62) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (61) vs RHP Max Scherzer: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.100), hot bat.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (57) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (56) vs RHP Paul Skenes: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (55) vs RHP Erick Fedde: real bat at .041 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (53) vs RHP Germán Márquez: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .105 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .082 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .116 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.