Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, April 19, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is going deep on .046 HR/PA against righties this year — and .045 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .231 in 13 career PA against Michael Lorenzen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (82) vs LHP Cole Ragans: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (74) vs RHP Grant Holmes: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (64) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: real bat at .041 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071), hot bat.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (62) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (59) vs RHP Bryan Woo: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (59) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.091).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (58) vs RHP Mitch Keller: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .046 against righties this year.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .160 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .125 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .078 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .109 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.