Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, April 21, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Connelly Early. The righty is going deep on .179 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .136 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Connelly Early has been mostly containing lefties lately — .029 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Connelly Early, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (93) vs RHP Landen Roupp: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (74) vs RHP Luis Castillo: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.067).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (72) vs LHP Parker Messick: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (65) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (61) vs RHP Nolan McLean: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (61) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
- James Wood (WSH) (59) vs RHP Reynaldo López: solid bat at .039 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .179 against lefties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .041 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .044 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .118 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .068 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.