Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, April 26, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Spencer Arrighetti. The righty is going deep on .051 HR/PA against righties this year — and .086 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Spencer Arrighetti has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Spencer Arrighetti too — .500 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (100) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: real bat at .049 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (86) vs RHP Luis Gil: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (80) vs RHP Simeon Woods Richardson: real bat at .049 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036), hot bat.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (79) vs RHP Michael King: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- José Ramírez (CLE) (72) vs LHP Patrick Corbin: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Corey Seager (TEX) (72) vs RHP J.T. Ginn: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.103).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (69) vs RHP Kodai Senga: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.167), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .062 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .051 against righties this year.
- José Ramírez (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .118 against lefties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.