Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, April 27, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Chris Paddack. The lefty is going deep on .032 HR/PA against righties this year — and .021 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Chris Paddack has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .080 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Chris Paddack too — .375 across 8 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (100) vs RHP Jack Leiter: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (80) vs RHP Jack Kochanowicz: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (75) vs RHP Luis Castillo: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- José Ramírez (CLE) (70) vs LHP Steven Matz: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.125).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (67) vs LHP Parker Messick: solid bat at .037 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (66) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (65) vs RHP Dustin May: real bat at .046 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.028).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .032 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .093 against righties this year.
- José Ramírez (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .111 against lefties this year.
- Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .040 against lefties this year.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .031 against lefties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.