Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, April 29, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Nathan Eovaldi. The righty is going deep on .078 HR/PA against righties this year — and .111 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Nathan Eovaldi has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .277 in 47 career PA against Nathan Eovaldi. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (90) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: real bat at .048 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (87) vs RHP Michael Wacha: real bat at .048 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (74) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .050 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (73) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Mike Trout (LAA) (65) vs RHP Erick Fedde: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.071).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (64) vs RHP Elmer Rodríguez: real bat at .045 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (63) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .031 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .058 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .026 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .059 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.