Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, April 28, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jacob deGrom. The righty is going deep on .070 HR/PA against righties this year — and .118 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Jacob deGrom has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .176 in 17 career PA against Jacob deGrom, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (82) vs RHP Shane Baz: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.024), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (81) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: real bat at .049 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (80) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: big-time bat at .051 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.048).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (77) vs RHP José Soriano: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Max Muncy (LAD) (77) vs RHP Janson Junk: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Dalton Rushing (LAD) (74) vs RHP Janson Junk: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (72) vs RHP Chase Burns: real bat at .043 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.037), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .106 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .090 against righties this year.
- Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- Dalton Rushing (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .200 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.