Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, May 5, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jacob deGrom. The righty is going deep on .082 HR/PA against righties this year — and .116 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Jacob deGrom has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .176 in 17 career PA against Jacob deGrom, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (72) vs RHP Luis Severino: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (72) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- James Wood (WSH) (65) vs RHP Taj Bradley: solid bat at .039 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.097).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (60) vs RHP Elmer Rodríguez: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (55) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (55) vs RHP George Kirby: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (54) vs RHP Walker Buehler: solid bat at .037 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .097 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .067 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .093 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .011 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.