Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, May 6, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Nathan Eovaldi. The righty is going deep on .080 HR/PA against righties this year — and .109 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Nathan Eovaldi has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .277 in 47 career PA against Nathan Eovaldi. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (76) vs RHP Lance McCullers Jr.: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077), due to bounce back.
- Matt Olson (ATL) (69) vs RHP Bryan Woo: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.154), hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (67) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083), due to bounce back.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (61) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: real bat at .048 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (59) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (58) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (58) vs RHP Bailey Ober: solid bat at .039 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .027 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .099 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .036 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .093 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .097 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.