Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, May 10, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Logan Henderson. The righty is going deep on .081 HR/PA against righties this year — and .122 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Logan Henderson has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Logan Henderson too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (86) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: big-time bat at .053 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (78) vs RHP Bryce Elder: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.022).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (70) vs RHP Gavin Williams: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (64) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (64) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.111), due to bounce back.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (61) vs LHP Keegan Akin: real bat at .043 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063), hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (60) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: real bat at .047 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.115).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .100 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .025 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .059 against righties this year.
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .071 against lefties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .094 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.