Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, May 9, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Spencer Strider. The lefty is going deep on .026 HR/PA against righties this year — and .000 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Spencer Strider has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .067 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Spencer Strider, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (96) vs LHP Kyle Harrison: big-time bat at .052 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (87) vs RHP Shane Baz: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (85) vs RHP Luis Castillo: real bat at .048 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.030).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (82) vs RHP Tanner Bibee: big-time bat at .053 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (78) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: real bat at .045 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.074).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (70) vs RHP Chase Burns: real bat at .041 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (69) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: real bat at .044 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .026 against righties this year.
- Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .098 against lefties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .044 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .096 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .048 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.