Who has the best home runs matchup today (Tuesday, May 12, 2026)?

Aaron Judge (NYY) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Trevor Rogers. Big-time bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hitter matchups today?

The top home runs matchups on Tuesday, May 12, 2026: Aaron Judge (100), Shohei Ohtani (93), Byron Buxton (91), Nick Kurtz (82), Kyle Schwarber (72). The full board ranks every hitter in every game.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Tuesday, May 12, 2026?

No — Aaron Judge didn't record a home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Aaron Judge (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .089 against lefties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .023 against righties this year. Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .041 against righties this year. Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .069 against righties this year. Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .056 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a home run.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ HR" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a home run a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Home Runs Board · Archive

Best MLB home runs matchups — Tuesday, May 12, 2026

Every slugger on the Tuesday, May 12, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by home run upside against today's matchup. Power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. Results show how each call played out.

Final · 2–3

LAAaway

CLEhomeTop matchup61 Final · 6–2

NYYaway

BALhomeTop matchup100 Final · 10–4

WSHaway

CINhomeTop matchup64 Final · 1–3

COLaway

PIThomeTop matchup70 Final · 2–1

PHIaway

BOShomeTop matchup72 Final · 7–6

TBaway

TORhomeTop matchup54 Final · 2–10

DETaway

NYMhomeTop matchup55 Final · 2–5

CHCaway

ATLhomeTop matchup66 Final · 5–6

KCaway

CWShomeTop matchup69 Final · 0–3

MIAaway

MINhomeTop matchup91 Final · 4–6

SDaway

MILhomeTop matchup49 Final · 4–7

AZaway

TEXhomeTop matchup70 Final · 10–2

SEAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup66 Final · 6–4

STLaway

ATHhomeTop matchup82 Final · 6–2

SFaway

LADhomeTop matchup93

#Hitter · MatchupScore

Batter · HR / PA vs LHP.051

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00015 PA

Season.08956 PA

Last 2 Years.097360 PA

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.028

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks——

Season.028107 PA

Last 2 Years.024747 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.027

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.026195 PA

Season.021477 PA

Last 2 Years.0272932 PA

HR EnvironmentFavorable +3%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.371

Hard-Hit %39%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.312

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.083

Plate Appearances12

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.55

Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.5×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Projection

Projected HR0.308

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.047

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00036 PA

Season.023129 PA

Last 2 Years.078987 PA

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.037

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.11118 PA

Season.05395 PA

Last 2 Years.039439 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.023

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.018167 PA

Season.014428 PA

Last 2 Years.0201675 PA

HR EnvironmentNeutral +1%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.352

Hard-Hit %41%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.354

Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.667

Plate Appearances6

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.65

Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Projection

Projected HR0.291

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.054

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.13552 PA

Season.100120 PA

Last 2 Years.068751 PA

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.036

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.05917 PA

Season.06676 PA

Last 2 Years.041243 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs RHB.025

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.007145 PA

Season.016509 PA

Last 2 Years.0282622 PA

HR EnvironmentStrong HR boost +6%

Blends his pull / center / oppo spray tendency with this park's field dimensions, the wind direction, and altitude — the factors that turn fly balls into home runs (or keep them in the yard).

Quality of Contact vs RHP

wOBA.349

Hard-Hit %37%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.318

Hard-Hit % Allowed34%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head

Career Average.000

Plate Appearances6

Context

Expected Plate Apps4.65

Sees starter / bullpen~3× / ~1.7×

BallparkNeutral

WeatherHelping

Projection

Projected HR0.287

A rough estimate of how many hits to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Batter · HR / PA vs RHP.043

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.00036 PA

Season.041121 PA

Last 2 Years.070457 PA

Opposing Starter · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.03529 PA

Season.03390 PA

Last 2 Years.023649 PA

Opposing Bullpen · HR / Batter Faced vs LHB.029

WindowRateSample

Last 2 Weeks.021194 PA

Season.029665 PA

Last 2 Years.0302642 PA