Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Wednesday, May 13, 2026
Top home runs spot: Aaron Judge
Aaron Judge (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kyle Bradish. The righty is going deep on .084 HR/PA against righties this year — and .111 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Kyle Bradish has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .050 in 20 career PA against Kyle Bradish, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (90) vs RHP Sonny Gray: big-time bat at .057 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (67) vs RHP Max Meyer: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Corey Seager (TEX) (61) vs RHP Ryne Nelson: real bat at .043 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045), due to bounce back.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (61) vs RHP Seth Lugo: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (57) vs RHP Mitch Keller: real bat at .044 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.032).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (55) vs RHP Bryce Miller: real bat at .040 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (54) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.063).
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .112 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .083 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .057 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Aaron Judge finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.