Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Tuesday, June 2, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Soroka. The lefty is going deep on .038 HR/PA against righties this year — and .081 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Michael Soroka has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 7 career PA against Michael Soroka. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (84) vs RHP Logan Gilbert: big-time bat at .051 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (73) vs RHP Randy Vásquez: big-time bat at .054 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.080).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (71) vs RHP Davis Martin: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (71) vs RHP Bubba Chandler: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (63) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (62) vs RHP Mike Burrows: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.061).
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) (61) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .038 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .088 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .094 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .039 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.