Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, June 1, 2026
Top home runs spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Emerson Hancock. The lefty is going deep on .089 HR/PA against righties this year — and .147 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Emerson Hancock has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 4 career PA against Emerson Hancock, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (70) vs RHP David Sandlin: big-time bat at .053 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (65) vs RHP Ty Madden: real bat at .041 into an arm with little track record against the same side (—), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (64) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.125).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (59) vs RHP José Soriano: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050).
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) (54) vs RHP Joe Ryan: real bat at .047 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.038).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (53) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Jo Adell (LAA) (53) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: real bat at .042 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.151).
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .089 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .058 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
- Colson Montgomery (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .040 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.