Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, June 5, 2026
Top home runs spot: Juan Soto
Juan Soto (NYM) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. The lefty is going deep on .082 HR/PA against righties this year — and .094 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Michael King has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .061 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Michael King, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (95) vs LHP Anthony Kay: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (88) vs RHP Peter Lambert: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (87) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: real bat at .045 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.043).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (85) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: real bat at .042 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (83) vs LHP Reid Detmers: solid bat at .039 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (82) vs RHP Sonny Gray: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (80) vs RHP Ryan Gusto: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .082 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .042 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Juan Soto finished with 0 home runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.