Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Friday, June 12, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shea Langeliers
Shea Langeliers (ATH) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Sean Sullivan. The righty is going deep on .096 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .222 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Sean Sullivan has been thin against lefties lately — — home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Sean Sullivan. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (87) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (86) vs RHP Spencer Strider: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (81) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (78) vs RHP Luinder Avila: real bat at .044 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.053).
- James Wood (WSH) (77) vs RHP Bryce Miller: real bat at .041 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (76) vs RHP Griffin Canning: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (73) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .096 against lefties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .087 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .060 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shea Langeliers finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.