Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Thursday, June 11, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Mitch Keller. The lefty is going deep on .033 HR/PA against righties this year — and .050 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Mitch Keller has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Mitch Keller too — .333 across 12 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Juan Soto (NYM) (87) vs RHP Hunter Dobbins: real bat at .047 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (78) vs RHP Keider Montero: big-time bat at .055 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (70) vs RHP Edward Cabrera: big-time bat at .050 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.333).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (66) vs RHP Bryan Woo: real bat at .043 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Luke Raley (SEA) (65) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: real bat at .044 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (63) vs RHP Christian Scott: solid bat at .038 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (60) vs RHP Mitch Keller: solid bat at .037 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .033 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .071 against righties this year.
- Luke Raley (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .045 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .040 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.