Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, June 14, 2026
Top home runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Erick Fedde. The lefty is going deep on .037 HR/PA against righties this year — and .050 over the last two weeks, real bat that turns into a home run in about 5% of his trips. And Erick Fedde has been mostly containing righties lately — .032 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .111 in 9 career PA against Erick Fedde, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (87) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: real bat at .046 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.056), hot bat.
- James Wood (WSH) (70) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: real bat at .041 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045), hot bat.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (70) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: big-time bat at .054 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.083).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (69) vs LHP Kyle Harrison: real bat at .049 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.100).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (67) vs RHP Stephen Kolek: real bat at .044 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.031).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (66) vs RHP Walker Buehler: real bat at .045 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (65) vs RHP Bryce Elder: real bat at .046 into an arm leaking power to the same side (.036).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .037 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .048 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .060 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .070 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.