MLB moneyline & run totals — Sunday, July 12, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=441) and game total (51%, n=415), but it's beating the book on its strongest team-total leans — 62% at +11% ROI over 81 graded plays (the ones we surface). Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
◆ Strongest leans — our biggest ML · total · team-total · NRFI disagreements →
MILMilwaukee Brewers53%-112fair+108mktModel lean+6.5%
PITPittsburgh Pirates✓47%+112fair-125mkt-6.5%
KCKansas City Royals33%+204fair+130mkt-9.1%
BALBaltimore Orioles✓67%-204fair-150mktModel lean+9.1%
NYYNew York Yankees✓40%+151fair-102mkt-8.7%
WSHWashington Nationals60%-151fair-115mktModel lean+8.7%
CHCChicago Cubs✓46%+117fair-130mkt-8.3%
CINCincinnati Reds54%-117fair+110mktModel lean+8.3%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓49%+105fair-110mkt-1.6%
NYMNew York Mets51%-105fair-106mktModel lean+1.6%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓45%+121fair+114mktModel lean+0.4%
DETDetroit Tigers55%-121fair-134mkt-0.4%
CLECleveland Guardians✓50%-101fair-105mktModel lean+0.8%
MIAMiami Marlins50%+101fair-111mkt-0.8%
SEASeattle Mariners✓50%-102fair+123mktModel lean+7.3%
TBTampa Bay Rays50%+102fair-145mkt-7.3%
LAALos Angeles Angels41%+145fair+111mkt-4.7%
MINMinnesota Twins✓59%-145fair-130mktModel lean+4.7%
ATHAthletics52%-108fair+130mktModel lean+10.0%
CWSChicago White Sox✓48%+108fair-152mkt-10.0%
ATLAtlanta Braves✓58%-139fair+115mktModel lean+13.1%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%+139fair-130mkt-13.1%
HOUHouston Astros58%-141fair+120mktModel lean+14.7%
TEXTexas Rangers✓42%+141fair-141mkt-14.7%
COLColorado Rockies50%-101fair+128mktModel lean+8.1%
SFSan Francisco Giants✓50%+101fair-150mkt-8.1%
AZArizona Diamondbacks✓40%+148fair+190mktModel lean+7.2%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers60%-148fair-230mkt-7.2%
TORToronto Blue Jays58%-140fair-126mktModel lean+4.7%
SDSan Diego Padres✓42%+140fair+108mkt-4.7%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.
MLB moneyline & team totals — FAQ
How accurate is MatchWiz's MLB moneyline and run-total model?
We grade every game against the result and post the record right on the board. Moneylines and game totals are efficient markets, so the model grades near break-even there and we treat those as transparency, not plays. Team totals are a softer market — that's where it's finding a real edge.
What's a team total, and why does the model bet it?
A team total is the over/under on one club's runs, not the whole game. It's a softer, less-efficient market than the moneyline, so our run projections find more room there. When our projected runs gap the line enough, we post it as a play with recommended units.
How does the run-total (over/under) projection work?
We project each side's runs from its lineup against the starter and bullpen, plus park and weather, then sum both sides for the game total and set it beside the market line. Over or under is just which side of that line we land on. The exact weighting is proprietary and tuned weekly.
Are these MLB betting picks?
No. Every number here is a graded research signal from our model, shown against the market and honest about its record. Not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).