Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 2 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.1 BF
Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.4 H
Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)24.1%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)20.8%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)22.0%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)22.2%2.1
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)21.0%2.0
6. Brandon Marsh (L)24.4%2.0
7. Derek Hill (R)22.1%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.0%2.0
9. Bryson Stott (L)23.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
No H recorded yet today — leaders fill in live as games get underway.
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Thursday, July 16, 2026
Christian Scott (NYM) is the top hits allowed spot on the Thursday, July 16, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 4.4 H, with Aaron Nola (PHI) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Christian Scott
Christian Scott (NYM) tops the Thursday, July 16, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 4.4 H vs PHI. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Aaron Nola (PHI) (0) — about 5.5 H vs NYM.
How to read the hits allowed board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Thursday, July 16, 2026)?
Christian Scott (NYM) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 4.4 H against PHI.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, July 16, 2026: Christian Scott (~4.4 H), Aaron Nola (~5.5 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated?
Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
What the hits allowed board is
The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His hit-suppression vs this lineup.
The park.
Projected batters faced.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.
How to use it
Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
