Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Sunday, August 23, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, August 23, 2026 slate — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
Each starting pitcher below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average starting pitcher in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Scores lock at first pitch and are graded against the box score the next morning — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →
PROJ1 on a projected lineup — updates ~2h before first pitchⓘ
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#Pitcher · MatchupScore
24 with a HLive count — updates as games play
1
Cristopher SánchezP
PHIvsSTL
9HFinal
Proj 5.1 H, #20
T1
Tomoyuki SuganoP
COLvsCLE
9H live
Proj 5.7 H, #29
3
Yusei KikuchiP
LAA@TEX
7H live
Proj 3.4 H, #7
T3
Matt WilkinsonP
SF@BOS
7H live
Proj 4.4 H, #11
T3
José SorianoP
TOR@NYY
7H live
Proj 4.5 H, #12
6
Cal QuantrillP
TEXvsLAA
6H live
Proj 4.4 H, #14
T6
Jake BennettP
BOSvsSF
6H live
Proj 5.2 H, #22
8
Shane BazP
BALvsTB
5HFinal
Proj 6.0 H, #30
9
Daniel Lynch IVP
KCvsDET
4H live
Proj 2.3 H, #4
T9
Brady BassoP
ATH@HOU
4H live
Proj 2.6 H, #5
T9
Cristian JavierP
HOUvsATH
4H live
Proj 3.9 H, #8
T9
Jackson KentP
WSH@MIA
4H live
Proj 5.0 H, #21
13
Sean NewcombP
CWSvsNYM
2H live
Proj 2.2 H, #3
T13
Carlos RodónP
NYYvsTOR
2H live
Proj 2.9 H, #6
T13
Foster GriffinP
CLE@COL
2H live
Proj 4.7 H, #16
T13
Kyle LeahyP
STL@PHI
2HFinal
Proj 4.9 H, #18
T13
Janson JunkP
MIAvsWSH
2H live
Proj 5.2 H, #24
18
Jacob WaguespackP
DET@KC
1H live
Proj 1.9 H, #2
T18
Blake SnellP
LADvsPIT
1H live
Proj 4.2 H, #9
T18
Mitch BrattP
AZvsCIN
1H live
Proj 4.3 H, #10
T18
Nick MartinezP
TB@BAL
1HFinal
Proj 4.6 H, #13
T18
Nolan McLeanP
NYM@CWS
1H live
Proj 4.5 H, #15
T18
Shota ImanagaP
CHC@SEA
1H live
Proj 4.6 H, #17
T18
Walker BuehlerP
SDvsMIN
1H live
Proj 4.8 H, #19
How the board graded
Share of our top-ranked starts that hit our hits-allowed over/under, next to the season-to-date rate. Updating live — 12 games in progress.
Top 5
0/10%
season 50%-50 pts-9% ROI
Top 10
2/450%
season 49%+1 pts-11% ROI
Top 20
5/1145%
season building
Top 50
6/1638%
season building
Full slate
6/1638%
season 50%-12 pts-10% ROI
“Hit” is the green check on the card — our hits-allowed over/under. Pools are our pre-game top-ranked matchups; only settled (final) outcomes count. Season-to-date is every graded day this season.
Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Sunday, August 23, 2026
Lake Bachar (PIT) leads the Sunday, August 23, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.4 H is tonight's toughest arm to square up. Jacob Waguespack (DET) is next at 100. Hits-allowed is a contact-management market — this board reads which starters face lineups that can't find the barrel.
Top spot: Lake Bachar
Lake Bachar (PIT) draws the softest contact matchup on the board — around 2.4 H projected against LAD. Suppressing hits is half stuff, half circumstance: whiffs mean fewer balls in play, and this defense-and-park combination decides what happens to the rest.
The rest of the top of the board
Jacob Waguespack (DET) (100) — about 1.9 H vs KC.
Sean Newcomb (CWS) (93) — about 2.2 H vs NYM.
Daniel Lynch IV (KC) (88) — about 2.3 H vs DET.
Brady Basso (ATH) (82) — about 2.6 H vs HOU.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (77) — about 2.9 H vs TOR.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 2.6 H. Lake Bachar finished with 0. Every projection is graded against the box score.
Hits allowed is where luck lives — and where it doesn't
Once a ball is in play, roughly three in ten fall for hits league-wide, and no pitcher fully controls which three. What an arm does control: how many balls get put in play at all (whiff arms simply allow fewer hits), what kind of contact he gives up, and which half of the platoon he's exposed to. What he doesn't: his defense's range and his park's alleys. The model scores the controllable parts against tonight's specific lineup and lets the season-long noise wash out — which is exactly why a good hits-allowed spot and a good ERA aren't the same claim.
How to read the hits allowed board
The 0–100 score reads how hard tonight's lineup figures to make contact against this arm, hand by hand, with the park folded in. The projection beside it is expected hits allowed for the start, set against the book's line (usually 4.5 or 5.5) where one is posted. Graded against the box score, hit or miss, like everything here.
The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His hit-suppression vs this lineup.
The park.
Projected batters faced.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.
How to use it
Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Sunday, August 23, 2026)?
Lake Bachar (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 2.4 H against LAD.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today?
The top projected starts on Sunday, August 23, 2026: Lake Bachar (~2.4 H), Jacob Waguespack (~1.9 H), Sean Newcomb (~2.2 H), Daniel Lynch IV (~2.3 H), Brady Basso (~2.6 H). The full board ranks every starter.
What's a normal hits-allowed line for a starter?
4.5 for most arms, 5.5 for durable pitch-to-contact types — it tracks expected length as much as stuff, since more innings means more balls in play. A short-leash strikeout arm can be a live under at 4.5 even without an elite matchup.
Why does the defense matter on a hits prop?
Because ~70% of balls in play get converted to outs by an average defense — and the spread between a good and bad one is real hits per game. The pitcher's job is the contact quality; the glove work behind him decides the margins.
How is the hits allowed score calculated?
Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed number alongside, and graded against the box score. The exact weighting is our own, tuned weekly against results.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
