Hits Allowed Board · Today
Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Friday, July 10, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 30 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Carson Palmquist⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.2%
vs RHB 23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 6.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 13.9 BF Expected batters faced 13.9
From recent starts 4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 20.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 20.6% 2.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 21.3% 2.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (R) 21.0% 2.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 23.3% 2.0
5. José Caballero (R) 21.1% 1.9
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 20.8% 1.0
7. Max Schuemann (R) 19.4% 1.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L) 19.4% 1.0
9. Austin Wells (L) 19.3% 1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Carson Palmquist's full player page → 2
Cal Quantrill⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.6%
vs RHB 24.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 13.7 BF Expected batters faced 13.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jose Altuve (R) 22.5% 2.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 22.5% 2.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 22.5% 2.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 22.5% 2.0
5. Cam Smith (R) 22.5% 1.7
6. Yainer Diaz (R) 22.5% 1.0
7. Brice Matthews (R) 22.5% 1.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R) 22.5% 1.0
9. Nick Allen (R) 22.5% 1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Cal Quantrill's full player page → 3
Luinder Avila⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.2%
vs RHB 21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.5 BF Expected batters faced 19.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Adley Rutschman (L) 20.9% 3.0
2. Taylor Ward (R) 21.1% 2.5
3. Gunnar Henderson (L) 22.9% 2.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 23.7% 2.0
5. Tyler O'Neill (R) 20.0% 2.0
6. Coby Mayo (R) 19.1% 2.0
7. Samuel Basallo (L) 22.3% 2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. Leody Taveras (L) 20.3% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Luinder Avila's full player page → 4
Jacob Lopez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.4%
vs RHB 23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.3 BF Expected batters faced 19.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Chase Meidroth (R) 23.6% 3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R) 22.6% 2.3
3. Miguel Vargas (R) 20.4% 2.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L) 22.6% 2.0
5. Junior Perez (R) 22.5% 2.0
6. Sam Antonacci (L) 22.1% 2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (R) 22.1% 2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R) 22.9% 2.0
9. Drew Romo (R) 21.0% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jacob Lopez's full player page → 5
Hunter Greene⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.2%
vs RHB 20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.2 BF Expected batters faced 22.2
From recent starts 1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 24.2% 3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R) 22.2% 3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R) 22.7% 3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R) 21.3% 3.0
5. Michael Busch (L) 21.3% 2.3
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 22.7% 2.0
7. Ian Happ (L) 20.9% 2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R) 22.4% 2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R) 23.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hunter Greene's full player page → 6
Jack Flaherty⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.7%
vs RHB 21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 20.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.3 BF Expected batters faced 21.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 25.9% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 21.3% 3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 22.3% 3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L) 24.8% 2.3
5. Alec Bohm (R) 22.7% 2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L) 23.1% 2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) 22.5% 2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R) 21.9% 2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L) 24.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jack Flaherty's full player page → 7
Hunter Brown⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.9 BF Expected batters faced 21.9
From recent starts 6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Justin Foscue (R) 20.8% 3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R) 22.5% 3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L) 20.6% 3.0
4. Josh Jung (R) 23.4% 2.9
5. Jake Burger (R) 22.9% 2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R) 22.9% 2.0
7. Kyle Higashioka (R) 22.2% 2.0
8. Cam Cauley (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. Alejandro Osuna (L) 21.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hunter Brown's full player page → 8
Luis Castillo⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.9%
vs RHB 21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.1 BF Expected batters faced 21.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 26.2% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 25.1% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 22.9% 3.0
4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L) 19.8% 2.1
5. Ryan Vilade (R) 20.8% 2.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L) 26.0% 2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R) 22.3% 2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L) 20.6% 2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R) 24.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Luis Castillo's full player page → 9
Nolan McLean⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.0%
vs RHB 20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.4 BF Expected batters faced 23.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (L) 22.1% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 24.6% 3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 20.9% 3.0
4. Romy Gonzalez (R) 24.0% 3.0
5. Caleb Durbin (R) 22.7% 3.0
6. Andruw Monasterio (R) 21.6% 2.4
7. Nate Eaton (R) 22.7% 2.0
8. Brett Harris (R) 21.2% 2.0
9. Connor Wong (R) 22.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Nolan McLean's full player page → 10
Brandon Sproat⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.2%
vs RHB 21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.9 BF Expected batters faced 20.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (L) 25.5% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 23.1% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 22.5% 2.9
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 24.1% 2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 25.9% 2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 25.7% 2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L) 21.2% 2.0
8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R) 23.0% 2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R) 21.9% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Sproat's full player page → 11
Robbie Ray⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 19.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.7%
vs RHB 19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.6 BF Expected batters faced 23.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 25.0% 3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L) 22.4% 3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (R) 24.5% 3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 23.3% 3.0
5. Kyle Karros (R) 22.9% 3.0
6. Troy Johnston (L) 21.7% 2.6
7. Edouard Julien (L) 21.1% 2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 21.9% 2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Robbie Ray's full player page → 12
Shota Imanaga⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.3%
vs RHB 22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.6 BF Expected batters faced 22.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (R) 24.3% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 23.3% 3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L) 23.1% 3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R) 22.3% 3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R) 20.8% 2.6
6. Tyler Stephenson (R) 21.0% 2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R) 21.6% 2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L) 20.7% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shota Imanaga's full player page → 13
Shane Bieber⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.2 BF Expected batters faced 22.2
From recent starts 3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 24.5% 3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L) 23.4% 3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) 22.5% 3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L) 22.2% 3.0
5. Jake Cronenworth (L) 21.4% 2.2
6. Luis Campusano (R) 22.8% 2.0
7. Miguel Andujar (R) 24.1% 2.0
8. Jase Bowen (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L) 22.0% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shane Bieber's full player page → 14
Sean Burke⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.4%
vs RHB 22.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.3 BF Expected batters faced 23.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 22.5% 3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L) 22.8% 3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R) 21.4% 3.0
4. Jonah Heim (L) 19.4% 3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R) 24.5% 3.0
6. Zack Gelof (R) 22.0% 2.3
7. Colby Thomas (R) 20.6% 2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R) 23.2% 2.0
9. Alika Williams (R) 22.3% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sean Burke's full player page → 15
Nick Martinez⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.4% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.1%
vs RHB 22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.7 BF Expected batters faced 23.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 21.2% 3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 21.4% 3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 23.1% 3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L) 20.1% 3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 23.7% 3.0
6. Luke Raley (L) 20.3% 2.7
7. Cole Young (L) 22.6% 2.0
8. Victor Robles (R) 24.4% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 20.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Nick Martinez's full player page → 16
Kyle Leahy⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.6%
vs RHB 20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.0 BF Expected batters faced 22.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Michael Harris II (L) 25.5% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L) 21.4% 3.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 22.7% 3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L) 22.4% 3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 23.4% 2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L) 23.9% 2.0
7. Austin Riley (R) 22.0% 2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L) 20.9% 2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kyle Leahy's full player page → 17
JP Sears⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.6%
vs RHB 23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ernie Clement (R) 22.5% 3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L) 22.5% 3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 22.5% 3.0
4. George Springer (R) 22.5% 3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L) 22.5% 2.7
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 22.5% 2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R) 22.5% 2.0
8. Jonatan Clase (R) 22.5% 2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
JP Sears's full player page → 18
Grayson Rodriguez⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.4%
vs RHB 23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.3 BF Expected batters faced 21.3
From recent starts 6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 23.8% 3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L) 22.7% 3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L) 22.9% 3.0
4. Josh Bell (L) 22.8% 2.3
5. Royce Lewis (R) 21.7% 2.0
6. Alan Roden (L) 21.6% 2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R) 24.7% 2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L) 20.5% 2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R) 23.4% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Grayson Rodriguez's full player page → 19
Shohei Ohtani⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.0 BF Expected batters faced 24.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 23.3% 3.0
2. Ildemaro Vargas (L) 21.3% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 20.7% 3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 25.0% 3.0
5. Max Kepler (L) 20.1% 3.0
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 22.0% 3.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R) 22.6% 2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L) 20.7% 2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R) 20.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shohei Ohtani's full player page → 20
Aaron Nola⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.4%
vs RHB 25.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Kevin McGonigle (L) 23.1% 3.0
2. Matt Vierling (R) 21.3% 3.0
3. Spencer Torkelson (R) 19.6% 3.0
4. Riley Greene (L) 25.4% 3.0
5. Hao-Yu Lee (R) 22.0% 2.7
6. Kerry Carpenter (L) 23.2% 2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L) 22.4% 2.0
8. Jake Rogers (R) 18.9% 2.0
9. James Outman (L) 16.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Aaron Nola's full player page → 21
Parker Messick⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.9%
vs RHB 22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.2 BF Expected batters faced 24.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 20.9% 3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R) 24.2% 3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (R) 23.3% 3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L) 20.7% 3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R) 22.6% 3.0
6. Griffin Conine (L) 22.6% 3.0
7. Esteury Ruiz (R) 20.3% 2.2
8. Jakob Marsee (L) 21.3% 2.0
9. Leo Jiménez (R) 21.0% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Parker Messick's full player page → 22
Sonny Gray⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.2%
vs RHB 23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.1 BF Expected batters faced 24.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. A.J. Ewing (L) 24.1% 3.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 22.2% 3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R) 25.9% 3.0
4. Carson Benge (L) 23.8% 3.0
5. Francisco Alvarez (R) 21.8% 3.0
6. Jared Young (L) 21.6% 3.0
7. Mark Vientos (R) 20.4% 2.1
8. Brett Baty (L) 21.9% 2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R) 21.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sonny Gray's full player page → 23
Braxton Ashcraft⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.8%
vs RHB 22.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.8 BF Expected batters faced 23.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Garrett Mitchell (L) 23.6% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 23.5% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 23.9% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 23.8% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 21.4% 3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R) 21.9% 2.8
7. Sal Frelick (L) 23.5% 2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R) 22.4% 2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R) 21.9% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Braxton Ashcraft's full player page → 24
Chris Sale⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.9%
vs RHB 22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 20.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 23.0% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 22.3% 3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L) 22.1% 3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R) 23.8% 3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L) 21.1% 3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 23.3% 3.0
7. Bryan Torres (L) 21.6% 2.5
8. José Fermín (R) 24.4% 2.0
9. Nathan Church (L) 23.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Chris Sale's full player page → 25
Ryan Weathers⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.2%
vs RHB 23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.8 BF Expected batters faced 22.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 22.5% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 22.5% 3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R) 22.5% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 22.5% 3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L) 22.5% 2.8
6. Dylan Crews (R) 22.5% 2.0
7. Jorbit Vivas (L) 22.5% 2.0
8. José Tena (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ryan Weathers's full player page → 26
Tanner Gordon⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 27.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 25.9%
vs RHB 27.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.3 BF Expected batters faced 20.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Heliot Ramos (R) 23.3% 3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L) 26.5% 3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 22.2% 2.3
4. Rafael Devers (L) 23.2% 2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 23.5% 2.0
6. Willy Adames (R) 22.3% 2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L) 20.8% 2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L) 22.1% 2.0
9. Eric Haase (R) 21.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tanner Gordon's full player page → 27
Eduardo Rodriguez⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.1%
vs RHB 22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 23.6% 3.0
2. Tommy Edman (R) 24.5% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 23.9% 3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R) 21.5% 3.0
5. Max Muncy (L) 21.8% 3.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R) 23.3% 2.5
7. Kyle Tucker (L) 24.4% 2.0
8. Alex Call (R) 23.7% 2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (R) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page → 28
Sandy Alcantara⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.2%
vs RHB 24.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 26.7 BF Expected batters faced 26.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 22.2% 3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L) 23.0% 3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 23.0% 3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L) 21.0% 3.0
5. Kahlil Watson (L) 22.5% 3.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R) 21.3% 3.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L) 20.6% 3.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L) 20.5% 3.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 23.4% 2.7
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sandy Alcantara's full player page → 29
Zebby Matthews⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.7%
vs RHB 23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.7 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 21.2% 3.0
2. Mike Trout (R) 20.5% 3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L) 22.4% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 20.4% 3.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R) 23.1% 3.0
6. Josh Lowe (L) 23.3% 3.0
7. Denzer Guzman (R) 24.1% 2.5
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 20.1% 2.0
9. Wade Meckler (L) 25.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Zebby Matthews's full player page → 30
Brandon Young⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.3%
vs RHB 24.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.6 BF Expected batters faced 24.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Lane Thomas (R) 19.6% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 24.9% 3.0
3. Salvador Perez (R) 21.1% 3.0
4. Starling Marte (R) 22.6% 3.0
5. Nick Loftin (R) 20.5% 3.0
6. Jac Caglianone (L) 20.8% 3.0
7. Isaac Collins (L) 22.8% 2.6
8. Tyler Tolbert (R) 26.1% 2.0
9. Luke Maile (R) 21.9% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Young's full player page → Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026 Carson Palmquist (WSH) is the top hits allowed spot on the Friday, July 10, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.1 H, with Cal Quantrill (TEX) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Carson Palmquist Carson Palmquist (WSH) tops the Friday, July 10, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.1 H vs NYY. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Cal Quantrill (TEX) (94) — about 3.3 H vs HOU. Luinder Avila (KC) (65) — about 4.1 H vs BAL. Jacob Lopez (ATH) (54) — about 4.4 H vs CWS. Hunter Greene (CIN) (49) — about 4.5 H vs CHC. Jack Flaherty (DET) (45) — about 4.6 H vs PHI. How to read the hits allowed board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Friday, July 10, 2026)? Carson Palmquist (WSH) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 3.1 H against NYY.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today? The top projected starts on Friday, July 10, 2026: Carson Palmquist (~3.1 H), Cal Quantrill (~3.3 H), Luinder Avila (~4.1 H), Jacob Lopez (~4.4 H), Hunter Greene (~4.5 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated? Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the hits allowed board is The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His hit-suppression vs this lineup. The park. Projected batters faced. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.
How to use it Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
