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Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +10% return.

11:05 AM ETPITPITawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup751:35 PM ETMINMINawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup464:05 PM ETDETDETawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup674:10 PM ETTORTORawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup527:10 PM ETCWSCWSawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup667:10 PM ETBALBALawayCINCINhomeTop matchup1007:10 PM ETTBTBawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup668:08 PM ETSTLSTLawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup268:08 PM ETNYMNYMawayATLATLhomeTop matchup848:10 PM ETSFSFawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup298:10 PM ETPHIPHIawayKCKChomeTop matchup409:38 PM ETBOSBOSawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup579:40 PM ETMILMILawayAZAZhomeTop matchup469:40 PM ETMIAMIAawayATHATHhomeTop matchup3310:10 PM ETSDSDawayLADLADhomeTop matchup57
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 30 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.3% K / BF

vs LHB32.0%
vs RHB27.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.2%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L)19.9%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)23.9%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)25.1%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.6%3.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L)24.9%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)26.0%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)22.6%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Greene's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.0% K / BF

vs LHB28.6%
vs RHB27.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 28@ BOS8
Jun 4vs TOR6
Jun 10@ CWS6
Jun 20vs MIL7
Jun 28@ SF10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)22.8%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)17.3%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)20.2%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (R)17.1%3.0
5. Carson Benge (L)23.9%3.0
6. Jared Young (L)24.8%3.0
7. Francisco Alvarez (R)23.5%2.3
8. Brett Baty (L)27.3%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chris Sale's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.8% K / BF

vs LHB29.5%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ ATL5
Jun 12vs MIA4
Jun 17@ ATH7
Jun 24vs SEA10
Jun 29@ PHI8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)29.0%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)17.4%3.0
3. José Tena (L)27.6%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)20.3%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)24.2%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)17.9%2.8
7. Keibert Ruiz (L)14.9%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)17.3%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Braxton Ashcraft's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.3%
vs RHB28.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 28vs LAA9
Jun 2@ TB6
Jun 7vs SEA7
Jun 12@ CLE1
Jun 28vs HOU9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Justin Foscue (R)23.9%3.0
2. Josh Jung (R)21.7%3.0
3. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.4%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)23.9%2.8
5. Kyle Higashioka (R)24.4%2.0
6. Cam Cauley (R)22.0%2.0
7. Elias Díaz (R)21.5%2.0
8. Alejandro Osuna (L)17.9%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jack Flaherty's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%
vs RHB26.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ MIA9
Jun 10vs BOS13
Jun 16@ LAD7
Jun 22vs KC5
Jun 28vs AZ5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)21.1%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.3%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)17.5%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)25.0%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)23.7%3.0
6. Taylor Trammell (L)27.9%2.1
7. Yainer Diaz (R)19.5%2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R)21.2%2.0
9. Nick Allen (R)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Drew Rasmussen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.2% K / BF

vs LHB23.9%
vs RHB26.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ TEX4
Jun 10vs NYY4
Jun 18@ MIL9
Jun 23@ CWS10
Jun 29vs TEX5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)21.8%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)17.9%3.0
3. Kyle Teel (L)24.3%3.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L)27.8%3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)28.3%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R)22.0%2.7
7. Chase Meidroth (R)22.8%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)21.6%2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Parker Messick's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.0% K / BF

vs LHB18.1%
vs RHB24.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ TOR4
Jun 10vs SEA5
Jun 16@ SEA2
Jun 21@ LAD5
Jun 27vs WSH8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.1%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)22.8%3.0
3. Spencer Steer (R)26.6%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)29.6%3.0
5. Noelvi Marte (R)21.9%3.0
6. JJ Bleday (L)23.8%2.8
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)24.3%2.0
8. Matt McLain (R)28.4%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Young's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.6% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ NYY3
Jun 12vs TEX7
Jun 18vs TOR4
Jun 23@ COL11
Jun 28vs NYY9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)28.1%3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)15.3%3.0
3. Denzer Guzman (R)20.6%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)29.8%3.0
5. Wade Meckler (L)20.9%3.0
6. Jo Adell (R)23.7%2.9
7. Oswald Peraza (R)27.8%2.0
8. Josh Lowe (L)24.8%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sonny Gray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB25.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 31vs PHI10
Jun 6vs LAA4
Jun 13@ CWS7
Jun 20vs BAL6
Jun 27@ SD4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)19.1%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.6%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)23.3%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.9%3.0
5. Ty France (R)22.7%3.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L)24.6%3.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.5%2.2
8. Freddy Fermin (R)21.2%2.0
9. Samad Taylor (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB28.9%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2vs NYM8
Jun 9@ BAL5
Jun 16vs BAL10
Jun 21vs BOS8
Jun 27@ CLE7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)16.0%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)14.8%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)29.5%3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L)24.1%3.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)16.7%3.0
6. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.5
7. Ernie Clement (R)13.6%2.0
8. Sean Keys (L)22.0%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Gilbert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.9% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%
vs RHB23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 26vs MIN8
May 31vs DET6
Jun 13vs LAD6
Jun 23vs CLE6
Jun 29@ BAL8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)19.6%3.0
2. David Fry (R)21.9%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)16.0%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.8%3.0
5. Kyle Manzardo (L)27.6%3.0
6. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.3%2.1
7. Gabriel Arias (R)28.6%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)21.7%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)12.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sean Burke's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs KC2
Jun 11@ DET4
Jun 16@ TEX4
Jun 22vs LAD5
Jun 29@ HOU7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)17.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.9%3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (L)23.3%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.8%3.0
5. Paul Goldschmidt (R)24.5%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.1%3.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)27.1%2.3
8. José Caballero (R)22.0%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zebby Matthews's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.5% K / BF

vs LHB25.8%
vs RHB26.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 18@ MIA4
Apr 24vs PIT3
Apr 30vs AZ2
Jun 22@ CIN10
Jun 28vs CHC6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)15.8%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.6%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.9%2.5
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.3%2.0
6. Adrian Del Castillo (L)24.1%2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)20.8%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)19.8%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Woodruff's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%
vs RHB19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 30vs KC2
Jun 5vs CLE5
Jun 11@ KC3
Jun 16vs MIN4
Jun 28@ TOR5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.1%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.7%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.7%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)24.5%3.0
5. Colt Keith (L)19.9%2.6
6. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.4%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)17.7%2.0
8. James Outman (L)36.3%2.0
9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)27.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.9 BF

Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ MIN2
Jun 11vs TEX2
Jun 16@ WSH3
Jun 22@ TB5
Jun 27@ CWS7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)22.0%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)22.0%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)22.0%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)22.0%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)22.0%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)22.0%3.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.9
8. Justin Crawford (L)22.0%2.0
9. Rafael Marchán (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael Wacha's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs CWS2
Jun 10@ TOR8
Jun 16vs MIA9
Jun 23@ WSH13
Jun 28@ NYM6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)22.0%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)22.0%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)22.0%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)22.0%3.0
5. Starling Marte (R)22.0%3.0
6. Nick Loftin (R)22.0%3.0
7. Michael Massey (L)22.0%2.1
8. Isaac Collins (R)22.0%2.0
9. Kameron Misner (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jesús Luzardo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.7% K / BF

vs LHB17.6%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.2 BF

Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs TB7
Jun 12@ PIT7
Jun 17@ PHI6
Jun 23vs TEX4
Jun 29@ COL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shea Langeliers (R)22.7%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)28.4%3.0
3. Colby Thomas (R)26.3%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (L)20.2%3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.0%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)24.9%3.0
7. Henry Bolte (R)22.7%3.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)16.4%2.2
9. Alika Williams (R)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sandy Alcantara's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB26.3%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 26vs LAA9
Mar 31vs BOS8
Jun 16vs DET7
Jun 22@ TOR4
Jun 28@ DET4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)15.6%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)18.5%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)20.2%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.7%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)18.7%2.3
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)21.2%2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)21.9%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)23.1%2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Brown's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 31@ COL6
Jun 5@ CHC4
Jun 10vs WSH3
Jun 23vs ATH6
Jun 28vs ATL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.2%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)28.1%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)31.1%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.4%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (R)22.0%3.0
6. Tyler Freeman (R)20.3%2.6
7. Edouard Julien (L)25.0%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)22.6%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)28.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Robbie Ray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB20.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 4vs ATH5
Jun 10@ COL7
Jun 15vs COL3
Jun 24@ NYM4
Jun 29vs SD4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.3%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)18.5%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)22.0%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)23.3%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)17.0%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)19.0%2.1
7. José Fermín (R)16.8%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.0%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shota Imanaga's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB27.7%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs ATL6
Jun 18@ PHI5
Jun 24vs CHC4
Jun 29@ TOR4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)24.4%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (R)12.8%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.2%2.8
4. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.4%2.0
5. Michael Harris II (L)21.8%2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)19.0%2.0
7. Austin Riley (R)27.2%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)26.0%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sean Manaea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB18.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs HOU2
Jun 28vs TEX4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)22.9%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.3%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)22.0%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)23.2%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)14.4%2.7
6. Cal Raleigh (L)27.4%2.0
7. Luke Raley (L)29.1%2.0
8. Cole Young (L)17.6%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)28.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Bieber's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs CIN1
Jun 12@ MIN5
Jun 17vs SD7
Jun 23vs AZ3
Jun 28vs MIA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.0%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)16.7%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)22.8%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.9%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)27.1%2.6
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.6%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)24.8%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)18.3%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Leahy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)17.7%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)16.5%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)21.2%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)19.0%2.9
5. Royce Lewis (R)27.4%2.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)16.3%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)22.6%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)26.7%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)15.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brendan Beck's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.0% K / BF

vs LHB16.0%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 31vs SD5
Jun 6@ AZ4
Jun 12vs SEA0
Jun 17vs KC2
Jun 28@ BAL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)24.4%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.0%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.7%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.0%2.5
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.5%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.4%2.0
7. Jake Mangum (L)19.7%2.0
8. Endy Rodríguez (L)21.1%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zack Littell's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 25vs PHI5
May 31@ WSH3
Jun 6vs NYM6
Jun 12@ BAL6
Jun 29@ CHC3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)21.9%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)21.6%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)16.6%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)16.1%2.3
5. Max Muncy (L)21.0%2.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)20.1%2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.2%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)26.3%2.0
9. Tommy Edman (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Canning's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.7% K / BF

vs LHB14.8%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs WSH4
Jun 11@ MIA1
Jun 16vs LAA4
Jun 22@ STL2
Jun 28@ TB3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)26.0%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.7%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)25.2%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)16.4%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)25.8%3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)28.7%3.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)12.4%2.4
8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.0%2.0
9. David Hamilton (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Merrill Kelly's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB16.5%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 20@ LAA2
May 25vs SEA2
Jun 17vs PIT2
Jun 23@ SF5
Jun 28@ LAA2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)13.0%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)15.4%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)29.8%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)13.5%3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)24.5%2.4
6. Owen Caissie (L)30.5%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)19.9%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)12.2%2.0
9. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Aaron Civale's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.8% K / BF

vs LHB18.8%
vs RHB18.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 5vs CWS0
Jun 12vs TB4
Jun 17@ AZ1
Jun 22vs BAL3
Jun 28vs ATH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)19.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)23.6%2.8
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)18.6%2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)21.2%2.0
5. Romy Gonzalez (R)24.4%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)16.3%2.0
7. Nate Eaton (R)21.6%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)23.0%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sam Aldegheri's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.2% K / BF

vs LHB16.7%
vs RHB17.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2@ LAA5
Jun 9vs CHC3
Jun 14@ ATH2
Jun 20vs PIT5
Jun 26@ MIN2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)7.9%3.0
2. Casey Schmitt (R)21.1%3.0
3. Heliot Ramos (R)21.8%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)24.0%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.0%3.0
6. Willy Adames (R)24.8%2.1
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)23.7%2.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R)22.0%2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tomoyuki Sugano's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +10% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays