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Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, July 4, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 2/3 (67%) on our strikeout over/under, against 51% on the season.

Top 3
2/367%
season 51%
Top 5
2/540%
season 50%
Full slate
17/2568%
season 52%

Top call Hunter Greene came through. Sonny Gray didn't.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 61% rate — a +10% return.

Δ1.6Hunter BrownFinal TB @ HOUwe project 4.9 K vs the 6.5 lineUnder 6.51uBOLBetOnline-158✓
Δ1.5Brandon YoungFinal BAL @ CINwe project 6.0 K vs the 4.5 lineOver 4.51uDKDraftKings-130✓

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Final · 7–1PITPITawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup73Final · 11–4MINMINawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup53Final · 3–0DETDETawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup56Final · 0–11TORTORawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup65Final · 8–5BALBALawayCINCINhomeTop matchup100Final · 8–10TBTBawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup70Final · 3–1CWSCWSawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup72Final · 3–0STLSTLawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup46Final · 3–14NYMNYMawayATLATLhomeTop matchup100Final · 6–4SFSFawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup51Final · 6–1PHIPHIawayKCKChomeTop matchup94Final · 8–1BOSBOSawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup100Final · 3–4MILMILawayAZAZhomeTop matchup82Final · 7–2MIAMIAawayATHATHhomeTop matchup58Final · 0–3SDSDawayLADLADhomeTop matchup98
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.6% K / BF

vs LHB26.1%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ NYY3
Jun 12vs TEX7
Jun 18vs TOR4
Jun 23@ COL11
Jun 28vs NYY9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)28.2%3.0
2. Denzer Guzman (R)20.7%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)15.2%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)29.8%3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L)24.8%3.0
6. Jo Adell (R)23.7%2.9
7. Wade Meckler (L)21.0%2.0
8. Donovan Walton (L)21.0%2.0
9. Tyler Heineman (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+106-137
BRBetRivers+100-132
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings-105-121
FANFanatics+100-130
FDFanDuel+106-136

We project 6.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Sonny Gray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.3% K / BF

vs LHB32.0%
vs RHB27.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)20.2%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L)20.3%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)23.3%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)24.8%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.1%3.0
6. Colton Cowser (L)27.0%2.0
7. Leody Taveras (L)22.0%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)24.9%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-149+115
BRBetRivers-137+104
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-156+122
FDFanDuel-142+112

We project 7.2 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Hunter Greene's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.0% K / BF

vs LHB28.6%
vs RHB27.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 28@ BOS8
Jun 4vs TOR6
Jun 10@ CWS6
Jun 20vs MIL7
Jun 28@ SF10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Francisco Lindor (R)17.1%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)17.3%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)20.4%3.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)22.0%3.0
5. Eric Wagaman (R)22.3%3.0
6. Francisco Alvarez (R)23.2%3.0
7. Carson Benge (L)23.8%2.3
8. Tyrone Taylor (R)22.0%2.0
9. Brett Baty (L)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline-102-127
BRBetRivers+104-137
BOVBovada-110-120
DKDraftKings-103-123
FDFanDuel-102-125

We project 6.6 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Chris Sale's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB25.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 31vs PHI10
Jun 6vs LAA4
Jun 13@ CWS7
Jun 20vs BAL6
Jun 27@ SD4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.3%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.7%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)23.3%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.4%3.0
5. Ty France (R)23.4%3.0
6. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.1%3.0
7. Jackson Merrill (L)25.2%2.2
8. Miguel Andujar (R)22.0%2.0
9. Luis Campusano (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+100-130
BRBetRivers+105-139
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings-101-126
FANFanatics+105-140
FDFanDuel+108-138

We project 5.8 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.4% K / BF

vs LHB26.8%
vs RHB27.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs CWS2
Jun 10@ TOR8
Jun 16vs MIA9
Jun 23@ WSH13
Jun 28@ NYM6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)21.2%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)15.8%3.0
3. Lane Thomas (R)23.1%3.0
4. Jac Caglianone (L)26.4%3.0
5. Nick Loftin (R)16.6%3.0
6. Starling Marte (R)23.4%3.0
7. Isaac Collins (R)22.3%2.1
8. Michael Massey (L)23.1%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+109-141
BRBetRivers+117-157
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings+109-139
FDFanDuel+102-130

We project 6.4 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jesús Luzardo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.5% K / BF

vs LHB25.8%
vs RHB26.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 18@ MIA4
Apr 24vs PIT3
Apr 30vs AZ2
Jun 22@ CIN10
Jun 28vs CHC6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)15.7%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.9%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.0%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.6%2.5
5. Adrian Del Castillo (L)24.1%2.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R)21.0%2.0
7. Max Kepler (L)22.0%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)16.1%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers+107-141
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-107-119
FDFanDuel-102-125

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Woodruff's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.8% K / BF

vs LHB29.5%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ ATL5
Jun 12vs MIA4
Jun 17@ ATH7
Jun 24vs SEA10
Jun 29@ PHI8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)28.2%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.8%3.0
3. José Tena (L)26.6%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)20.4%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)23.4%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)17.5%2.8
7. Keibert Ruiz (L)14.4%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)16.8%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+107-139
BRBetRivers+104-137
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings-103-124
FANFanatics-105-125
FDFanDuel+108-138

We project 6.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Braxton Ashcraft's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.4% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%
vs RHB25.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ TEX4
Jun 10vs NYY4
Jun 18@ MIL9
Jun 23@ CWS10
Jun 29vs TEX5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)17.6%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)22.0%3.0
3. Chase Meidroth (R)21.7%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)28.8%3.0
5. Junior Perez (R)22.0%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R)22.0%2.7
7. Luisangel Acuña (R)22.0%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)22.0%2.0
9. Drew Romo (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline-105-123
BRBetRivers-108-124
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-106-121
FDFanDuel+102-130

We project 6.0 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Parker Messick's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%
vs RHB26.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ MIA9
Jun 10vs BOS13
Jun 16@ LAD7
Jun 22vs KC5
Jun 28vs AZ5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)21.8%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.4%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)17.1%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)25.0%3.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)22.0%3.0
6. Cam Smith (R)23.2%2.1
7. Yainer Diaz (R)19.1%2.0
8. Taylor Trammell (L)27.2%2.0
9. Nick Allen (R)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-133+103
BRBetRivers-141+106
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-138+108
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-128+100

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Drew Rasmussen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.0% K / BF

vs LHB18.1%
vs RHB24.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ TOR4
Jun 10vs SEA5
Jun 16@ SEA2
Jun 21@ LAD5
Jun 27vs WSH8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.4%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)23.2%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)23.5%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)29.4%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.0%3.0
6. Spencer Steer (R)26.4%2.8
7. Jose Trevino (R)22.0%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)22.0%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)28.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-141+109
BRBetRivers-136+102
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-132+104
FANFanatics-145+110
FDFanDuel-138+108

We project 5.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Young's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB28.9%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2vs NYM8
Jun 9@ BAL5
Jun 16vs BAL10
Jun 21vs BOS8
Jun 27@ CLE7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)15.8%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.4%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.9%3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L)24.0%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)13.4%3.0
6. Yohendrick Piñango (L)21.6%2.5
7. Sean Keys (L)23.1%2.0
8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)25.4%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BRBetRivers-157+118
BOVBovada-160+120
FANFanatics-140+105
FDFanDuel-156+122

We project 5.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Logan Gilbert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.7% K / BF

vs LHB17.6%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.2 BF

Expected batters faced25.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs TB7
Jun 12@ PIT7
Jun 17@ PHI6
Jun 23vs TEX4
Jun 29@ COL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)28.7%3.0
2. Zack Gelof (R)22.0%3.0
3. Lawrence Butler (L)24.1%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (L)21.0%3.0
5. Carlos Cortes (L)17.0%3.0
6. Henry Bolte (R)22.2%3.0
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)20.0%3.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)15.7%2.2
9. Alika Williams (R)27.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOLBetOnline-123-105
BRBetRivers-130-103
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-120-106
FDFanDuel-128+100

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Sandy Alcantara's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.3%
vs RHB28.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 28vs LAA9
Jun 2@ TB6
Jun 7vs SEA7
Jun 12@ CLE1
Jun 28vs HOU9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)22.1%3.0
2. Josh Smith (L)18.1%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)22.1%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.8%2.8
5. Alejandro Osuna (L)17.6%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.6%2.0
7. Evan Carter (L)22.8%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)21.5%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOLBetOnline-116-111
BRBetRivers+100-132
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-112-113
FANFanatics-115-115
FDFanDuel-113-113

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jack Flaherty's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs KC2
Jun 11@ DET4
Jun 16@ TEX4
Jun 22vs LAD5
Jun 29@ HOU7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)18.7%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.7%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.7%3.0
4. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.1%3.0
5. Anthony Volpe (R)22.2%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.2%3.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L)26.3%2.3
8. Max Schuemann (R)23.7%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-143+110
BRBetRivers-124-108
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-136+107
FANFanatics-120-110
FDFanDuel-125-102

We project 5.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Zebby Matthews's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB26.3%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 26vs LAA9
Mar 31vs BOS8
Jun 16vs DET7
Jun 22@ TOR4
Jun 28@ DET4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jonathan Aranda (L)18.3%3.0
2. Junior Caminero (R)20.3%3.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L)22.4%3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)22.0%3.0
5. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)22.5%2.3
6. Jonny DeLuca (R)19.3%2.0
7. Richie Palacios (L)22.0%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)22.7%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)27.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers+112-150
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+113-145
FDFanDuel+116-148

We project 5.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Hunter Brown's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.5%
vs RHB23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 26vs MIN8
May 31vs DET6
Jun 13vs LAD6
Jun 23vs CLE6
Jun 29@ BAL8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)19.7%3.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L)15.8%3.0
3. Kyle Manzardo (L)28.7%3.0
4. Kahlil Watson (L)22.0%3.0
5. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.2%3.0
6. Cooper Ingle (L)22.0%2.1
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)27.6%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)22.8%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)13.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOLBetOnline-109-119
BRBetRivers-107-124
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-109-117
FANFanatics-110-120
FDFanDuel-102-125

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Sean Burke's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.9 BF

Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ MIN2
Jun 11vs TEX2
Jun 16@ WSH3
Jun 22@ TB5
Jun 27@ CWS7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)22.8%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)31.5%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)19.8%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)23.8%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)17.0%3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)18.6%3.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.0%2.9
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-116-111
BRBetRivers-122-109
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-135+106
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-120-106

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Wacha's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12@ ATH2
Jun 17@ CHC2
Jun 23vs BOS3
Jun 29vs MIA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)23.7%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)13.0%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)19.0%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)26.7%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)16.6%2.2
6. Willy Adames (R)27.5%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)24.9%2.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R)25.6%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)28.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-110-118
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-122-105
FDFanDuel-102-120

We project 5.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Sean Sullivan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB20.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 4vs ATH5
Jun 10@ COL7
Jun 15vs COL3
Jun 24@ NYM4
Jun 29vs SD4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.0%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)17.8%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)22.2%3.0
4. Alec Burleson (L)16.3%3.0
5. Masyn Winn (R)19.4%3.0
6. José Fermín (R)16.8%2.1
7. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.0%2.0
8. Pedro Pagés (R)22.0%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)19.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-133+103
BRBetRivers-118-112
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-123-104
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-138+108

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Shota Imanaga's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 31@ COL6
Jun 5@ CHC4
Jun 10vs WSH3
Jun 23vs ATH6
Jun 28vs ATL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)22.0%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)22.4%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)30.9%3.0
4. Tyler Freeman (R)20.1%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (R)22.0%3.0
6. Jake McCarthy (L)18.9%2.6
7. Braxton Fulford (R)29.4%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)27.8%2.0
9. Troy Johnston (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-116-111
BRBetRivers-136+102
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-133+104
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-122-104

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Robbie Ray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs CIN1
Jun 12@ MIN5
Jun 17vs SD7
Jun 23vs AZ3
Jun 28vs MIA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.6%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)16.4%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)22.9%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.0%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)27.2%2.6
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.2%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)24.8%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)22.0%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
BOLBetOnline+134-175
BRBetRivers+125-167
BOVBovada+140-185
DKDraftKings+122-156
FDFanDuel+130-166

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Leahy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB26.7%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs ATL6
Jun 18@ PHI5
Jun 24vs CHC4
Jun 29@ TOR4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.3%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)24.2%3.0
3. Ozzie Albies (R)12.7%2.8
4. Matt Olson (L)23.1%2.0
5. Austin Riley (R)27.2%2.0
6. Michael Harris II (L)21.8%2.0
7. Eli White (R)24.5%2.0
8. Joey Bart (R)22.0%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-130+101
BRBetRivers-122-108
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-124-102
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-125-102

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Sean Manaea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB18.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs HOU2
Jun 28vs TEX4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)23.9%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)23.8%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)22.7%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)26.7%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)14.3%2.7
6. Luke Raley (L)29.2%2.0
7. Cole Young (L)18.1%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)19.5%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)29.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-145+111
BRBetRivers-152+115
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-154+121
FDFanDuel-156+122

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Bieber's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.7% K / BF

vs LHB14.8%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs WSH4
Jun 11@ MIA1
Jun 16vs LAA4
Jun 22@ STL2
Jun 28@ TB3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brice Turang (L)24.2%3.0
2. Christian Yelich (L)24.8%3.0
3. Jake Bauers (L)26.4%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)16.4%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)28.4%3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)16.7%3.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)12.2%2.4
8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.0%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-127-102
BRBetRivers-129-104
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-116-110
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-132+104

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Merrill Kelly's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)18.1%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)22.9%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)20.5%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)20.1%2.9
5. Royce Lewis (R)26.5%2.0
6. Brooks Lee (L)17.0%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)24.7%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)15.5%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brendan Beck's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB16.5%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 20@ LAA2
May 25vs SEA2
Jun 17vs PIT2
Jun 23@ SF5
Jun 28@ LAA2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)13.1%3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L)29.0%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)15.5%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)13.1%3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)26.4%2.4
6. Owen Caissie (L)31.7%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)20.0%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)12.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-135+104
BRBetRivers-130-103
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-122-104
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-136+106

We project 3.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Aaron Civale's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.8% K / BF

vs LHB18.8%
vs RHB18.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 5vs CWS0
Jun 12vs TB4
Jun 17@ AZ1
Jun 22vs BAL3
Jun 28vs ATH4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)19.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)23.0%2.8
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)18.1%2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)20.5%2.0
5. Caleb Durbin (R)15.6%2.0
6. Romy Gonzalez (R)24.4%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)25.1%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.0%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sam Aldegheri's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB19.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.4 BF

Expected batters faced15.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ MIA1
Jun 27@ TOR5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.1%2.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.7%2.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.7%2.0
4. Riley Greene (L)24.5%2.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.4%2.0
6. Colt Keith (L)19.9%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)17.7%1.4
8. Ben Malgeri (R)22.0%1.0
9. James Outman (L)36.3%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cal Quantrill's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB16.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.1 BF

Expected batters faced14.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15@ STL1
Jun 21@ TEX0
Jun 23vs ATL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Tommy Edman (R)20.3%2.0
2. Andy Pages (R)19.0%2.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)21.6%2.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)15.4%2.0
5. Kyle Tucker (L)21.8%2.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.4%1.1
7. Max Muncy (L)24.4%1.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)23.2%1.0
9. Alex Freeland (R)28.5%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Wandy Peralta's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +10% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays