Last scored matchup
Brendan isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 12 days ago, at home against Baltimore Orioles on Friday, September 25, 2026, where he landed on outs recorded (70.5/100), strikeouts (40/100), hits allowed (25/100). This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Season line
2 starts, 0-2, 9.95 ERA, 1.66 WHIP, 12.2 innings. He's struck out 13 over that span, against 8 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws right-handed
Brendan throws right-handed, which is the ordinary case and means fewer wild swings in the lineup he faces. Opposing managers aren't restacking against him the way they would a left-hander, so his projection moves more on the quality of the lineup than on its handedness. What does move it: how deep he's been going lately, and whether the lineup in front of him strikes out.
His last 4 starts
Brendan has 13 strikeouts in 12.7 innings across his last 4 starts, a 9.2 K/9, with a 9.95 ERA over that stretch and 8 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.
How long he goes
Brendan is averaging 3.2 innings a start across his last 4 outings, with a high of 5.0 and about 62 pitches a night. He's not going deep, and that caps the strikeout and outs projections no matter how good the matchup looks — you can't strike out hitters you don't face. Expected batters faced is one of the bigger inputs to his score for exactly this reason.
A long gap since his last start
Brendan hasn't started in 12 days. That's the single most useful warning on a pitcher's page, and it's the model's weakest spot. A gap that long usually means an injured-list stint, and a first start back is often on a strict pitch limit that no stat line reveals — books frequently don't post an outs line at all in that spot. Our projection is built on his healthy workload, so it will overshoot a shortened rehab start. Read any projection here with that in mind until he's stretched back out.
Where he lands across our boards
Brendan was scored on 6 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: outs recorded graded 70.5/100 while earned runs came in at 13.2/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.
How the model reads him
Brendan's score comes from the matchup, not his reputation. The model weighs how the opposing lineup handles his handedness, how many batters he's likely to face given recent workload, the park, and the weather — then normalizes 0–100 against every other arm on the slate. How those factors are weighted is our own, and it re-tunes weekly against real outcomes. We publish the score and grade it in public; that's the half you can check.
What we'd flag
Read this page knowing what it can't do. It can't show you a line no book posted — coverage peaks around 87% for confirmed starters. It can't see a lineup change that happens after the projection publishes. And it can't tell you anything useful from one game, because the model is only measurable across a season-sized sample. For Brendan specifically, he's coming off a 12-day gap.