Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?

Cam Schlittler (NYY) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.4 K against TB. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 19% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Monday, July 6, 2026: Cam Schlittler (~5.4 K), Kevin Gausman (~5.1 K), Cristopher Sánchez (~6.3 K), Griffin Jax (~5.3 K), Dustin May (~4.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, July 6, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, July 6, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 1/3 (33%) on our strikeout over/under, against 51% on the season.

Top 3

1/333%

season 51%

Top 5

2/540%

season 50%

Full slate

8/1650%

season 52%

Top call Cristopher Sánchez came through. Cam Schlittler didn't.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 61% rate — a +11% return.

Δ1.6Dustin MayNEWFinal MIL @ STLwe project 5.1 K vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.51uMGMBetMGM-145✓

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Final · 1–15

PHIaway

KChomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–1

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup100 Final · 11–12

HOUaway

WSHhomeTop matchup35 Final · 7–6

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup61 Final · 4–3

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup78 Final · 8–0

AZaway

SDhomeTop matchup21 Final · 1–10

TORaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–8

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup58

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.9% K / BF

vs LHB27.7%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs BOS5

Jun 13@ TOR7

Jun 19vs CIN13

Jun 25@ BOS9

Jun 30vs DET5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness18.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.8%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)19.6%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)20.8%3.0

4. Cedric Mullins (L)21.6%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)18.3%3.0

6. Chandler Simpson (L)12.0%2.3

7. Nick Fortes (R)17.4%2.0

8. Richie Palacios (L)17.7%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-145+105

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-148+112

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-146+115

FDFanDuel-160+124

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cam Schlittler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs BAL5

Jun 13vs NYY7

Jun 19@ CHC3

Jun 25vs TEX4

Jun 30vs NYM7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Heliot Ramos (R)22.6%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)8.3%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.3%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)24.0%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.7%3.0

6. Willy Adames (R)26.6%2.3

7. Bryce Eldridge (L)24.9%2.0

8. Victor Bericoto (R)22.0%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers-107-125

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+100-127

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+104-132

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.7% K / BF

vs LHB27.8%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8@ TOR10

Jun 14@ MIL3

Jun 20vs NYM5

Jun 25@ WSH6

Jun 30vs PIT9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Lane Thomas (R)23.4%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)15.3%3.0

3. Salvador Perez (R)20.3%3.0

4. Jac Caglianone (L)27.3%3.0

5. Nick Loftin (R)17.6%3.0

6. Starling Marte (R)24.6%3.0

7. Tyler Tolbert (R)22.0%2.4

8. Luke Maile (R)22.0%2.0

9. Josh Rojas (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BOLBetOnline-122-106

BRBetRivers-122-109

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-121-105

FDFanDuel-118-108

We project 6.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ MIA4

Jun 13@ LAA5

Jun 19vs WSH5

Jun 24vs KC7

Jun 30@ KC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)20.0%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)22.3%3.0

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)24.2%2.8

4. Cody Bellinger (L)18.2%2.0

5. Jasson Domínguez (L)20.3%2.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.1%2.0

7. José Caballero (R)22.0%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)27.0%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline-105-123

BRBetRivers+100-132

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-104-123

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel-108-118

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2vs TEX9

Jun 9@ NYM6

Jun 15vs SD9

Jun 21@ KC2

Jul 2@ ATL1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)25.2%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)23.8%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)24.2%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)16.4%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)26.8%2.3

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.7%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)12.6%2.0

8. Cooper Pratt (R)19.8%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-145+105

We project 4.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Dustin May's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ CHC5

Jun 12vs CHC5

Jun 19@ MIA7

Jun 25vs ATH6

Jun 30@ AZ4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ernie Clement (R)12.9%3.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)15.9%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.9%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)29.3%3.0

5. Sean Keys (L)22.0%2.8

6. Alejandro Kirk (R)16.2%2.0

7. Daulton Varsho (L)22.9%2.0

8. Myles Straw (R)16.0%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers-157+118

BOVBovada-180+135

DKDraftKings-143+112

FDFanDuel-162+128

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Landen Roupp's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs STL5

Jun 14vs ATL2

Jun 20@ PHI2

Jun 25vs CHC5

Jul 1@ TOR4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Michael Harris II (L)20.2%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)17.6%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.4%3.0

4. Drake Baldwin (L)22.2%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)15.7%3.0

6. Dominic Smith (L)18.3%2.3

7. Austin Riley (R)26.4%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.4%2.0

9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-145+105

BOLBetOnline-147+114

BRBetRivers-148+110

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-159+124

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-156+122

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs MIL2

Jun 13@ ATH4

Jun 19vs PIT8

Jun 24vs BOS4

Jul 1vs MIA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.4%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)19.3%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)20.4%3.0

4. Mookie Betts (R)14.9%3.0

5. Kyle Tucker (L)21.1%3.0

6. Teoscar Hernández (R)23.5%2.8

7. Max Muncy (L)24.9%2.0

8. Miguel Rojas (R)15.7%2.0

9. Dalton Rushing (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+117-152

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+120-153

FANFanatics+130-170

FDFanDuel+122-154

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ COL4

Jun 13vs PHI7

Jun 18vs CLE3

Jun 24@ CIN5

Jul 1vs CIN7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.8%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.2%3.0

3. Jordan Walker (R)21.9%2.6

4. Nelson Velázquez (R)21.7%2.0

5. José Fermín (R)16.4%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.2%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)20.4%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)19.9%2.0

9. Pedro Pagés (R)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers+125-167

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+122-156

FANFanatics+120-160

FDFanDuel+126-162

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ MIN7

Jun 13vs HOU1

Jun 18vs STL6

Jun 24@ TB5

Jun 30vs TB0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.6%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.7%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)23.8%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.3%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)29.1%2.9

6. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.5%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)20.8%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)18.3%2.0

9. Derek Hill (R)30.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-154+118

BRBetRivers-148+112

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-161+126

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-148+116

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2vs PIT3

Jun 7vs ATH3

Jun 13@ KC5

Jun 24@ TOR3

Jun 30vs MIN3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.8%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.1%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)20.8%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.1%3.0

5. Dylan Crews (R)24.4%2.6

6. Daylen Lile (L)17.8%2.0

7. Jacob Young (R)20.2%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)20.9%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-164+126

BRBetRivers-159+120

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-144+113

FANFanatics-160+120

FDFanDuel-160+124

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Mike Burrows's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8vs CIN4

Jun 14@ BAL5

Jun 20@ TEX7

Jun 26vs LAD5

Jul 1@ CHC6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)14.9%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.9%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.4%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.8%3.0

5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)18.1%2.2

6. Max Kepler (L)21.2%2.0

7. Nolan Arenado (R)21.2%2.0

8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.1%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-164+125

BRBetRivers-139+105

BOVBovada-170+130

DKDraftKings-167+131

FDFanDuel-166+130

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.0 BF

Expected batters faced16.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 7@ LAA7

Apr 14vs MIA6

Apr 21@ WSH1

Jun 26@ SF1

Jul 1vs STL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. A.J. Ewing (L)21.5%2.0

2. Juan Soto (L)16.6%2.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)19.8%2.0

4. Francisco Lindor (L)20.9%2.0

5. Carson Benge (L)20.4%2.0

6. Jared Young (L)21.4%2.0

7. Francisco Alvarez (R)27.6%2.0

8. Brett Baty (L)22.1%1.0

9. Ronny Mauricio (L)26.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers+100-134

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+107-136

FDFanDuel+108-138

We project 3.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.4% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB16.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 26vs COL4

Jun 2@ AZ1

Jun 9@ PIT5

Jun 15vs TB4

Jun 29@ ATH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Willi Castro (R)22.0%3.0

2. Kyle Karros (R)22.4%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)30.2%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.0%3.0

5. Cole Carrigg (R)22.0%2.6

6. Tyler Freeman (R)22.0%2.0

7. Jake McCarthy (L)18.4%2.0

8. Troy Johnston (L)19.7%2.0

9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-145

BOLBetOnline+120-156

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+103-132

FDFanDuel+112-142

We project 4.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate14.9% K / BF

vs LHB15.5%

vs RHB16.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 8vs STL3

Apr 30@ NYM3

May 6vs MIN3

May 12@ CIN2

Jun 29@ BOS3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)20.2%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.8%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)16.5%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)25.2%3.0

5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)25.1%2.2

6. Cam Smith (R)22.3%2.0

7. Yainer Diaz (R)18.1%2.0

8. Braden Shewmake (L)18.6%2.0

9. Brice Matthews (R)28.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers+135-182

BOVBovada+135-180

DKDraftKings+136-175

FDFanDuel+136-174

We project 3.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.2 BF

Expected batters faced16.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 31vs DET3

Apr 5vs ATL2

Apr 11@ PHI6

Jun 30vs SF2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.2%2.0

2. Jake Cronenworth (L)24.1%2.0

3. Manny Machado (R)23.3%2.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.0%2.0

5. Ty France (R)23.0%2.0

6. Jackson Merrill (L)24.7%2.0

7. Samad Taylor (R)24.8%2.0

8. Sung-Mun Song (L)19.0%1.3

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-130+100

BRBetRivers-127-106

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-120-107

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-120-106

We project 3.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026

Cam Schlittler (NYY) is the top strikeout start on the Monday, July 6, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.4 K, with Kevin Gausman (TOR) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Cam Schlittler

Cam Schlittler (NYY) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.4 K against TB. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and TB has been around league average, going down 19% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Kevin Gausman (TOR) (100) — about 5.1 K vs SF: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) (100) — about 6.3 K vs KC: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Griffin Jax (TB) (80) — about 5.3 K vs NYY: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Dustin May (STL) (78) — about 4.9 K vs MIL: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Landen Roupp (SF) (75) — about 4.8 K vs TOR: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 19% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

PHI is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Noah Cameron is the arm to exploit it (36).
NYY is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Griffin Jax is the arm to exploit it (80).
MIL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Dustin May is the arm to exploit it (78).
SD is striking out 22% of the time in this spot — Brandon Pfaadt is the arm to exploit it (0).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.6 strikeouts. Top play Cam Schlittler punched out 8. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?: Cam Schlittler (NYY) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.4 K against TB. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 19% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Monday, July 6, 2026: Cam Schlittler (~5.4 K), Kevin Gausman (~5.1 K), Cristopher Sánchez (~6.3 K), Griffin Jax (~5.3 K), Dustin May (~4.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Monday, July 6, 2026?: Cam Schlittler punched out 8.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +11% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays