Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against KC. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Monday, July 6, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~6.7 K), Cam Schlittler (~5.6 K), Dustin May (~5.2 K), Griffin Jax (~5.1 K), Landen Roupp (~4.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, July 6, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61% — a +10% return.

2:10 PM ET

PHIaway

KChomeTop matchup100 6:40 PM ET

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup75 6:45 PM ET

HOUaway

WSHhomeTop matchup19 7:15 PM ET

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup32 7:45 PM ET

MILaway

STLhomeTop matchup53 9:40 PM ET

AZaway

SDhomeTop matchup19 9:45 PM ET

TORaway

SFhomeTop matchup48 10:10 PM ET

COLaway

LADhomeTop matchup31

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 16 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.3% K / BF

vs LHB28.1%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8@ TOR10

Jun 14@ MIL3

Jun 20vs NYM5

Jun 25@ WSH6

Jun 30vs PIT9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)22.4%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)15.3%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)27.3%3.0

4. Lane Thomas (R)23.4%3.0

5. Michael Massey (L)24.8%3.0

6. Salvador Perez (R)20.5%3.0

7. Josh Rojas (L)23.2%2.4

8. Kameron Misner (L)25.8%2.0

9. Isaac Collins (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cristopher Sánchez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.9% K / BF

vs LHB27.7%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs BOS5

Jun 13@ TOR7

Jun 19vs CIN13

Jun 25@ BOS9

Jun 30vs DET5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)16.5%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)19.7%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)20.3%3.0

4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.7%3.0

5. Chandler Simpson (L)12.0%3.0

6. Ben Williamson (R)21.3%2.3

7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)22.6%2.0

8. Richie Palacios (L)17.7%2.0

9. Hunter Feduccia (L)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cam Schlittler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2vs TEX9

Jun 9@ NYM6

Jun 15vs SD9

Jun 21@ KC2

Jul 2@ ATL1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)24.3%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)23.9%3.0

3. Christian Yelich (L)25.4%3.0

4. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.2%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)27.3%2.3

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)28.7%2.0

7. Gary Sánchez (R)22.7%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)24.3%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dustin May's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ MIA4

Jun 13@ LAA5

Jun 19vs WSH5

Jun 24vs KC7

Jun 30@ KC5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)19.0%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)22.5%3.0

3. Jasson Domínguez (L)21.0%2.8

4. Cody Bellinger (L)18.1%2.0

5. Anthony Volpe (R)22.3%2.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.3%2.0

7. Max Schuemann (R)22.4%2.0

8. Austin Wells (L)25.3%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Jax's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ CHC5

Jun 12vs CHC5

Jun 19@ MIA7

Jun 25vs ATH6

Jun 30@ AZ4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nathan Lukes (L)15.6%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.4%3.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.9%3.0

4. Alejandro Kirk (R)15.8%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)23.7%2.8

6. Ernie Clement (R)13.1%2.0

7. Sean Keys (L)22.0%2.0

8. Luis Urías (R)20.2%2.0

9. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Landen Roupp's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs BAL5

Jun 13vs NYY7

Jun 19@ CHC3

Jun 25vs TEX4

Jun 30vs NYM7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)8.4%3.0

2. Casey Schmitt (R)21.4%3.0

3. Heliot Ramos (R)21.8%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)23.6%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.0%3.0

6. Willy Adames (R)25.3%2.3

7. Bryce Eldridge (L)24.3%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)16.8%2.0

9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs STL5

Jun 14vs ATL2

Jun 20@ PHI2

Jun 25vs CHC5

Jul 1@ TOR4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Drake Baldwin (L)22.9%3.0

2. Ozzie Albies (L)16.9%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.8%3.0

4. Michael Harris II (L)19.5%3.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.1%3.0

6. Dominic Smith (L)17.4%2.3

7. Austin Riley (R)26.3%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.7%2.0

9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Freddy Peralta's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs MIL2

Jun 13@ ATH4

Jun 19vs PIT8

Jun 24vs BOS4

Jul 1vs MIA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.5%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)18.8%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)21.2%3.0

4. Mookie Betts (R)15.1%3.0

5. Teoscar Hernández (R)23.2%3.0

6. Alex Call (R)18.1%2.8

7. Miguel Rojas (R)15.7%2.0

8. Alex Freeland (R)29.5%2.0

9. Eliezer Alfonzo (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Freeland's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ MIN7

Jun 13vs HOU1

Jun 18vs STL6

Jun 24@ TB5

Jun 30vs TB0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.7%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.9%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)22.5%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)29.4%3.0

5. Alec Bohm (R)18.4%2.9

6. Bryson Stott (L)20.7%2.0

7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)21.6%2.0

9. Garrett Stubbs (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Noah Cameron's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.4% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB16.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 26vs COL4

Jun 2@ AZ1

Jun 9@ PIT5

Jun 15vs TB4

Jun 29@ ATH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)18.4%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)27.7%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)30.2%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.2%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)19.9%2.6

6. Kyle Karros (R)21.7%2.0

7. Edouard Julien (L)24.6%2.0

8. Brett Sullivan (L)19.7%2.0

9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eric Lauer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2vs PIT3

Jun 7vs ATH3

Jun 13@ KC5

Jun 24@ TOR3

Jun 30vs MIN3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.4%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.9%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)21.8%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.8%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)18.0%2.6

6. Dylan Crews (R)24.6%2.0

7. José Tena (L)25.6%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)17.0%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (L)14.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mike Burrows's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8vs CIN4

Jun 14@ BAL5

Jun 20@ TEX7

Jun 26vs LAD5

Jul 1@ CHC6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)15.1%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.3%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.2%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.6%3.0

5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.0%2.2

6. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.4%2.0

7. Tim Tawa (R)24.2%2.0

8. Pavin Smith (L)19.9%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ COL4

Jun 13vs PHI7

Jun 18vs CLE3

Jun 24@ CIN5

Jul 1vs CIN7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.1%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.5%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.9%2.6

4. Jordan Walker (R)21.9%2.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.5%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.1%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)19.5%2.0

8. José Fermín (R)16.5%2.0

9. Bryan Torres (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.0 BF

Expected batters faced16.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 7@ LAA7

Apr 14vs MIA6

Apr 21@ WSH1

Jun 26@ SF1

Jul 1vs STL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)21.1%2.0

2. Juan Soto (L)16.7%2.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)20.2%2.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)26.8%2.0

5. Carson Benge (L)20.5%2.0

6. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.5%2.0

7. A.J. Ewing (L)20.8%2.0

8. Luis Torrens (R)22.6%1.0

9. Brett Baty (L)22.2%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reynaldo López's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate14.9% K / BF

vs LHB15.5%

vs RHB16.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 8vs STL3

Apr 30@ NYM3

May 6vs MIN3

May 12@ CIN2

Jun 29@ BOS3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)20.8%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.7%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)16.7%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)24.7%3.0

5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)23.3%2.2

6. Cam Smith (R)22.6%2.0

7. Taylor Trammell (L)28.0%2.0

8. Nick Allen (R)24.0%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.1% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.2 BF

Expected batters faced16.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 31vs DET3

Apr 5vs ATL2

Apr 11@ PHI6

Jun 30vs SF2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.1%2.0

2. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.9%2.0

3. Manny Machado (R)23.6%2.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.4%2.0

5. Ty France (R)23.8%2.0

6. Jackson Merrill (L)24.5%2.0

7. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.2%2.0

8. Sung-Mun Song (L)19.8%1.3

9. Luis Campusano (R)24.2%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Monday, July 6, 2026

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Monday, July 6, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K, with Cam Schlittler (NYY) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against KC. He's missing bats at a 26% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and KC has been around league average, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Cam Schlittler (NYY) (75) — about 5.6 K vs TB: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Dustin May (STL) (53) — about 5.2 K vs MIL: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Griffin Jax (TB) (48) — about 5.1 K vs NYY: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Landen Roupp (SF) (48) — about 4.9 K vs TOR: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) (45) — about 4.6 K vs SF: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

MIL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Dustin May is the arm to exploit it (53).
COL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Eric Lauer is the arm to exploit it (21).
KC is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Cristopher Sánchez is the arm to exploit it (100).
PHI is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Noah Cameron is the arm to exploit it (29).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Monday, July 6, 2026)?: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.7 K against KC. A 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Monday, July 6, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~6.7 K), Cam Schlittler (~5.6 K), Dustin May (~5.2 K), Griffin Jax (~5.1 K), Landen Roupp (~4.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +10% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays