Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?

Joe Ryan (MIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K against NYY. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, July 5, 2026: Joe Ryan (~6.3 K), Kyle Bradish (~6.4 K), Nolan McLean (~6.2 K), Cade Cavalli (~6.0 K), Ranger Suarez (~6.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +9% return.

12:30 PM ET

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup92 1:00 PM ET

PITaway

WSHhomeTop matchup87 1:05 PM ET

BALaway

CINhomeTop matchup96 1:35 PM ET

MINaway

NYYhomeTop matchup100 2:00 PM ET

CWSaway

CLEhomeTop matchup48 2:30 PM ET

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup44 3:00 PM ET

PHIaway

KChomeTop matchup71 3:30 PM ET

TBaway

HOUhomeTop matchup53 3:30 PM ET

DETaway

TEXhomeTop matchup64 4:00 PM ET

SFaway

COLhomeTop matchup32 4:00 PM ET

MILaway

AZhomeTop matchup56 4:30 PM ET

MIAaway

ATHhomeTop matchup82 5:00 PM ET

TORaway

SEAhomeTop matchup55 7:20 PM ET

SDaway

LADhomeTop matchup66 9:30 PM ET

BOSaway

LAAhomeTop matchup85

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 29 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB26.0%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6vs KC5

Jun 12vs STL8

Jun 18@ TEX7

Jun 24vs LAD9

Jun 30@ HOU5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.7%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)22.7%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.7%3.0

4. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.1%3.0

5. Anthony Volpe (R)22.2%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.2%2.8

7. Ryan McMahon (L)26.3%2.0

8. Max Schuemann (R)23.7%2.0

9. Ali Sánchez (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Joe Ryan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB26.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ TOR3

Jun 11vs SEA5

Jun 17@ SEA12

Jun 22@ LAA9

Jun 28vs WSH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.4%3.0

2. Sal Stewart (R)23.2%3.0

3. JJ Bleday (L)23.5%3.0

4. Eugenio Suárez (R)29.4%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)26.5%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)26.4%2.6

7. Jose Trevino (R)17.4%2.0

8. TJ Friedl (L)21.3%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)28.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.4% K / BF

vs LHB27.5%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ SD5

Jun 12vs ATL6

Jun 17@ CIN9

Jun 24vs CHC9

Jun 30@ TOR7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.1%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)23.6%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (L)16.8%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)22.2%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)26.7%3.0

6. Michael Harris II (L)19.8%2.6

7. Eli White (R)23.4%2.0

8. Joey Bart (R)23.6%2.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nolan McLean's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.8% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ AZ2

Jun 13vs SEA5

Jun 20@ TB1

Jun 25vs PHI7

Jun 30@ BOS13

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Konnor Griffin (R)24.1%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.7%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.3%3.0

4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.0%3.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.7%2.8

6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.6%2.0

7. Jake Mangum (L)19.3%2.0

8. Tyler Callihan (L)29.6%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.8%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ NYY6

Jun 13vs TEX7

Jun 19@ SEA5

Jun 24@ COL9

Jun 29vs WSH8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.7%3.0

2. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.8%3.0

3. Denzer Guzman (R)29.1%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)22.9%3.0

5. Vaughn Grissom (R)17.9%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)19.8%2.5

7. Jose Siri (R)26.2%2.0

8. Josh Lowe (L)24.1%2.0

9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ HOU3

Jun 12vs COL6

Jun 18vs LAA7

Jun 24@ SF9

Jun 29vs LAD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Liam Hicks (L)19.6%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)25.6%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)16.8%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (R)18.0%3.0

5. Heriberto Hernández (R)20.8%2.9

6. Griffin Conine (L)23.4%2.0

7. Owen Caissie (L)30.1%2.0

8. Jakob Marsee (L)26.2%2.0

9. Leo Jiménez (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gage Jump's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17@ TB5

May 22vs NYM5

May 27@ TOR9

Jun 24vs TEX1

Jun 30@ COL8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)28.7%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)23.5%3.0

3. Lawrence Butler (L)24.1%3.0

4. Colby Thomas (R)26.3%2.9

5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.0%2.0

6. Carlos Cortes (L)17.0%2.0

7. Henry Bolte (R)22.2%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)15.7%2.0

9. Alika Williams (R)27.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs BOS4

Jun 12@ TOR2

Jun 18vs CWS8

Jun 24@ DET6

Jun 29vs DET3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trevor Larnach (L)22.1%3.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)22.4%3.0

3. Kody Clemens (L)24.4%3.0

4. Josh Bell (R)21.2%3.0

5. Royce Lewis (R)20.5%3.0

6. Brooks Lee (R)19.5%2.1

7. Ryan Kreidler (R)17.6%2.0

8. Luke Keaschall (R)21.1%2.0

9. Alex Jackson (R)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs CWS4

Jun 13@ MIL3

Jun 18vs NYM6

Jun 24@ WSH5

Jun 29vs PIT5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)25.9%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.2%3.0

3. Lane Thomas (R)24.4%3.0

4. Jac Caglianone (L)26.3%3.0

5. Nick Loftin (R)17.2%2.5

6. Starling Marte (R)23.3%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)21.3%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)16.0%2.0

9. Tyler Tolbert (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB24.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 1@ AZ3

Jun 7vs LAA2

Jun 14@ CWS8

Jun 21vs BAL4

Jun 28@ SD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.3%3.0

2. Jake Cronenworth (L)21.7%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)23.3%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.4%2.4

5. Ty France (R)23.4%2.0

6. Jackson Merrill (L)25.2%2.0

7. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.1%2.0

8. Sung-Mun Song (L)20.0%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 30vs KC2

Jun 5vs CLE5

Jun 11@ KC3

Jun 16vs MIN4

Jun 28@ TOR5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.1%3.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.7%3.0

3. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.7%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)24.5%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.4%2.6

6. Colt Keith (L)19.9%2.0

7. Zach McKinstry (L)17.7%2.0

8. Ben Malgeri (R)22.0%2.0

9. James Outman (L)36.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 21vs CLE4

May 27vs LAA6

Jun 17@ HOU3

Jun 23vs NYY6

Jun 29@ NYY10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)22.1%3.0

2. Josh Smith (L)18.1%3.0

3. Josh Jung (R)22.1%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.8%2.4

5. Alejandro Osuna (L)17.6%2.0

6. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.6%2.0

7. Evan Carter (L)22.8%2.0

8. Elias Díaz (R)21.5%2.0

9. Nicky Lopez (L)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Casey Mize's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.7% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ STL3

Jun 12vs AZ5

Jun 17vs NYM2

Jun 23vs MIL6

Jun 29@ MIL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.3%3.0

2. Adley Rutschman (R)17.6%3.0

3. Taylor Ward (R)21.6%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)25.4%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)27.4%3.0

6. Colton Cowser (L)30.3%2.3

7. Leody Taveras (R)26.0%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)23.1%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nick Lodolo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ COL2

Jun 10@ ATH3

Jun 17vs CLE6

Jun 23@ CIN10

Jun 30vs CIN7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)15.7%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.9%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.0%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.6%2.6

5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)18.9%2.0

6. Nolan Arenado (R)21.0%2.0

7. Ildemaro Vargas (L)16.1%2.0

8. LuJames Groover (R)22.0%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs BAL5

Jun 12vs NYY3

Jun 18@ BOS6

Jun 24vs HOU5

Jun 29vs NYM3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)23.9%3.0

2. Randy Arozarena (R)23.8%3.0

3. Dominic Canzone (L)22.7%3.0

4. Cal Raleigh (L)26.7%3.0

5. Josh Naylor (L)14.3%3.0

6. Luke Raley (L)29.2%2.6

7. Cole Young (L)18.1%2.0

8. Victor Robles (R)19.5%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)29.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Trey Yesavage's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs ATH4

Jun 10@ LAA6

Jun 17vs DET5

Jun 23@ TOR6

Jun 29vs MIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jonathan Aranda (L)18.3%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)20.3%3.0

3. Cedric Mullins (L)22.4%3.0

4. Ryan Vilade (R)22.2%3.0

5. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)22.5%3.0

6. Jonny DeLuca (R)19.3%2.4

7. Richie Palacios (L)18.0%2.0

8. Taylor Walls (L)22.7%2.0

9. Hunter Feduccia (L)27.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Peter Lambert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 1vs NYM7

Jun 8@ BAL3

Jun 14@ WSH2

Jun 20vs BOS6

Jun 28@ CLE6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nathan Lukes (L)15.8%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.4%3.0

3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.9%3.0

4. Daulton Varsho (L)24.0%3.0

5. Ernie Clement (R)13.4%2.4

6. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.0

7. Sean Keys (L)22.0%2.0

8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)25.4%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Emerson Hancock's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ TEX3

Jun 12vs DET8

Jun 19@ HOU7

Jun 24@ CWS3

Jun 30vs TEX2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Miguel Vargas (R)19.9%3.0

2. Randal Grichuk (R)19.7%3.0

3. Chase Meidroth (R)23.1%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)30.2%3.0

5. Junior Perez (R)22.0%3.0

6. Braden Montgomery (L)22.0%2.3

7. Luisangel Acuña (R)20.9%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)19.5%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB17.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs ATL5

Jun 30@ CHC4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.5%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)19.0%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)21.6%3.0

4. Mookie Betts (R)15.4%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)24.4%3.0

6. Kyle Tucker (L)21.8%2.4

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.4%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)23.2%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (R)28.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

JP Sears's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6vs CIN4

Jun 13@ MIN4

Jun 18@ KC2

Jun 24vs AZ3

Jun 30@ ATL9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.5%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)17.5%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)22.8%3.0

4. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.4%2.8

5. Ian Happ (R)28.5%2.0

6. Nico Hoerner (R)14.5%2.0

7. Michael Conforto (L)21.0%2.0

8. Carson Kelly (R)17.5%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2@ HOU3

Jun 13vs MIA6

Jun 19@ COL1

Jun 25vs SEA4

Jun 30@ PHI6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.2%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.8%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)20.9%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.4%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)17.5%3.0

6. Dylan Crews (R)23.4%2.4

7. José Tena (L)26.6%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)20.8%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.8% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6vs WSH5

Jun 12@ CIN3

Jun 17vs LAA5

Jun 23@ STL5

Jun 29vs SF1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)26.2%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.4%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)25.2%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)19.0%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)25.5%3.0

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)25.4%2.4

7. Sal Frelick (L)16.3%2.0

8. Cooper Pratt (R)22.0%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB20.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 30@ CHC2

Jun 18@ ATH2

Jun 23vs BAL8

Jun 29@ SEA3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nate Eaton (R)21.8%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.6%2.7

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)24.0%2.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.3%2.0

5. Caleb Durbin (R)17.9%2.0

6. Romy Gonzalez (R)21.8%2.0

7. Jarren Duran (L)28.1%2.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.5%2.0

9. Carlos Narváez (R)29.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Johnson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 15@ ATH6

May 20@ AZ6

May 26vs AZ3

Jun 24vs ATH4

Jun 29@ AZ3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Willi Castro (L)25.7%3.0

2. Kyle Karros (R)21.8%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)26.9%3.0

4. Tyler Freeman (R)14.9%3.0

5. Cole Carrigg (L)22.0%2.3

6. Jake McCarthy (L)17.7%2.0

7. Braxton Fulford (R)24.3%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.7%2.0

9. Troy Johnston (L)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.1 BF

Expected batters faced20.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ MIN3

Jun 12vs HOU0

Jun 17@ WSH5

Jun 23@ TB6

Jun 28@ CWS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)22.8%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)31.5%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.8%2.1

4. Brandon Marsh (L)23.8%2.0

5. Alec Bohm (R)17.0%2.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)18.6%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)23.4%2.0

8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luinder Avila's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

May 25@ LAD3

May 31vs SF2

Jun 30vs MIA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Heliot Ramos (R)22.0%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)8.3%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.2%2.6

4. Rafael Devers (L)23.5%2.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.4%2.0

6. Willy Adames (R)25.7%2.0

7. Bryce Eldridge (L)23.8%2.0

8. Victor Bericoto (R)22.0%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)27.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tanner Gordon's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB18.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs PIT5

Jun 13@ NYM4

Jun 19vs MIL5

Jun 24@ SD4

Jun 30vs STL1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (R)17.1%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)17.3%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)20.4%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)22.6%3.0

5. Eric Wagaman (R)22.3%2.3

6. Francisco Alvarez (R)23.2%2.0

7. Carson Benge (L)23.8%2.0

8. Tyrone Taylor (R)21.1%2.0

9. Brett Baty (L)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Martín Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.5% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%

vs RHB17.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.2 BF

Expected batters faced19.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 13@ PHI3

Apr 19vs NYM3

Jun 12@ SF5

Jun 17vs COL1

Jun 24@ NYM5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)16.8%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.1%2.2

3. Jordan Walker (R)27.3%2.0

4. Nelson Velázquez (R)21.0%2.0

5. Alec Burleson (L)16.2%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)18.7%2.0

7. José Fermín (R)18.2%2.0

8. Blaze Jordan (R)22.0%2.0

9. Nathan Church (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Javier Assad's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.2 BF

Expected batters faced13.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs CLE2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Travis Bazzana (L)24.9%2.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)18.4%2.0

3. Kyle Manzardo (L)24.3%2.0

4. Kahlil Watson (L)22.0%2.0

5. Brayan Rocchio (R)21.4%1.2

6. Cooper Ingle (L)22.0%1.0

7. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.2%1.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)18.6%1.0

9. Steven Kwan (L)16.7%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chris Murphy's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Joe Ryan (MIN) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K, with Kyle Bradish (BAL) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Joe Ryan

Joe Ryan (MIN) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K against NYY. He's missing bats at a 27% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and NYY has been around league average, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Kyle Bradish (BAL) (96) — about 6.4 K vs CIN: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
Nolan McLean (NYM) (92) — about 6.2 K vs ATL: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Cade Cavalli (WSH) (87) — about 6.0 K vs PIT: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Ranger Suarez (BOS) (85) — about 6.0 K vs LAA: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Gage Jump (ATH) (82) — about 5.5 K vs MIA: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

CIN is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Kyle Bradish is the arm to exploit it (96).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Nick Lodolo is the arm to exploit it (58).
DET is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Kumar Rocker is the arm to exploit it (64).
BOS is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Ryan Johnson is the arm to exploit it (33).

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, July 5, 2026)?: Joe Ryan (MIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.3 K against NYY. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, July 5, 2026: Joe Ryan (~6.3 K), Kyle Bradish (~6.4 K), Nolan McLean (~6.2 K), Cade Cavalli (~6.0 K), Ranger Suarez (~6.0 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays