MatchWiz

Best MLB strikeouts matchupsSunday, July 5, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, July 5, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, July 5, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 2/3 (67%) on our strikeout over/under, against 51% on the season.

Top 3
2/367%
season 51%
Top 5
3/560%
season 50%
Full slate
15/2952%
season 52%

Top call Ranger Suarez came through. Joe Ryan didn't.

Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61%a +10% return.

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB26.0%
vs RHB26.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6vs KC5
Jun 12vs STL8
Jun 18@ TEX7
Jun 24vs LAD9
Jun 30@ HOU5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)19.0%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.5%3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (L)21.0%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)18.1%3.0
5. Anthony Volpe (R)22.3%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.3%2.8
7. Max Schuemann (R)22.4%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)25.3%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOLBetOnline-130+100
BRBetRivers-121-110
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-116-110
FDFanDuel-113-113

We project 6.2 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Joe Ryan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.7% K / BF

vs LHB26.1%
vs RHB24.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ NYY6
Jun 13vs TEX7
Jun 19@ SEA5
Jun 24@ COL9
Jun 29vs WSH8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)24.9%3.0
2. Denzer Guzman (R)29.1%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)17.9%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)22.6%3.0
5. Oswald Peraza (R)22.0%3.0
6. Jo Adell (R)19.4%2.5
7. Jose Siri (R)27.5%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)22.7%2.0
9. Josh Lowe (L)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline+105-135
BRBetRivers+112-148
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings-102-125
FDFanDuel+102-130

We project 6.2 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB26.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ TOR3
Jun 11vs SEA5
Jun 17@ SEA12
Jun 22@ LAA9
Jun 28vs WSH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.4%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)22.4%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)21.9%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)28.4%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)25.3%3.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)23.3%2.6
7. Noelvi Marte (R)21.6%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)20.8%2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOLBetOnline-109-119
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-120-106
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-115-111

We project 6.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.8% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB24.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ AZ2
Jun 13vs SEA5
Jun 20@ TB1
Jun 25vs PHI7
Jun 30@ BOS13

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)24.9%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.8%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.9%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.0%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)21.4%2.8
6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.3%2.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)21.7%2.0
8. Tyler Callihan (L)29.4%2.0
9. Jake Mangum (L)19.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+132-172
BRBetRivers+120-162
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+113-144
FDFanDuel+126-162

We project 6.0 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.4% K / BF

vs LHB27.5%
vs RHB25.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ SD5
Jun 12vs ATL6
Jun 17@ CIN9
Jun 24vs CHC9
Jun 30@ TOR7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)22.9%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)16.9%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)21.8%3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)19.5%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.1%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)17.4%2.6
7. Austin Riley (R)26.3%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.7%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-143+110
BRBetRivers-137+104
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-152+119
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-138+108

We project 5.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Nolan McLean's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%
vs RHB24.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 17@ TB5
May 22vs NYM5
May 27@ TOR9
Jun 24vs TEX1
Jun 30@ COL8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)21.9%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)29.0%3.0
3. Zack Gelof (R)23.6%3.0
4. Lawrence Butler (L)24.5%2.9
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)18.6%2.0
6. Carlos Cortes (L)17.8%2.0
7. Max Muncy (R)30.1%2.0
8. Jonah Heim (L)21.3%2.0
9. Brian Serven (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-152+117
BRBetRivers-143+108
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-146+115
FANFanatics-140+105
FDFanDuel-136+106

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB25.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ HOU3
Jun 12vs COL6
Jun 18vs LAA7
Jun 24@ SF9
Jun 29vs LAD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Otto Lopez (R)16.8%3.0
2. Heriberto Hernández (R)20.6%3.0
3. Liam Hicks (L)19.2%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R)18.0%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)18.5%2.9
6. Esteury Ruiz (R)27.1%2.0
7. Leo Jiménez (R)25.1%2.0
8. Jakob Marsee (L)25.9%2.0
9. Brian Navarreto (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+112-145
BOVBovada+125-165
FDFanDuel+128-164

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Gage Jump's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs CWS4
Jun 13@ MIL3
Jun 18vs NYM6
Jun 24@ WSH5
Jun 29vs PIT5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)26.8%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.8%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)26.3%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)24.7%3.0
5. Michael Massey (L)16.4%2.5
6. Salvador Perez (R)23.1%2.0
7. Josh Rojas (L)21.9%2.0
8. Kameron Misner (L)28.2%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-161+123
BRBetRivers-165+123
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-156+122
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-156+122

We project 5.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%
vs RHB24.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs BOS4
Jun 12@ TOR2
Jun 18vs CWS8
Jun 24@ DET6
Jun 29vs DET3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)18.4%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)24.0%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)23.5%3.0
4. Josh Bell (R)20.9%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)20.3%3.0
6. Victor Caratini (R)25.4%2.1
7. Brooks Lee (R)21.0%2.0
8. Ryan Kreidler (R)18.4%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-125-103
BRBetRivers-139+104
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-144+113
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-120-106

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%
vs RHB19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 30vs KC2
Jun 5vs CLE5
Jun 11@ KC3
Jun 16vs MIN4
Jun 28@ TOR5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.8%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.5%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.3%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)24.4%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.7%2.6
6. Colt Keith (L)20.9%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)17.3%2.0
8. Jake Rogers (R)25.0%2.0
9. James Outman (L)35.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-152+117
BRBetRivers-165+123
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-151+118
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-142+112

We project 5.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kumar Rocker's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

vs LHB27.4%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 21vs CLE4
May 27vs LAA6
Jun 17@ HOU3
Jun 23vs NYY6
Jun 29@ NYY10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)22.4%3.0
2. Jake Burger (R)24.0%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.3%3.0
4. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.5%2.4
5. Evan Carter (L)22.2%2.0
6. Elias Díaz (R)22.1%2.0
7. Josh Smith (L)18.3%2.0
8. Cam Cauley (R)22.0%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)17.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-172+132
BRBetRivers-175+128
BOVBovada-180+135
FDFanDuel-174+136

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Casey Mize's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB24.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 1@ AZ3
Jun 7vs LAA2
Jun 14@ CWS8
Jun 21vs BAL4
Jun 28@ SD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.1%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.9%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)23.6%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.4%2.4
5. Ty France (R)23.8%2.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L)24.5%2.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.2%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)19.8%2.0
9. Luis Campusano (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline-133+103
BRBetRivers-117-114
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-112-114
FANFanatics-115-115
FDFanDuel-111-115

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.8%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs BAL5
Jun 12vs NYY3
Jun 18@ BOS6
Jun 24vs HOU5
Jun 29vs NYM3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)23.7%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)23.2%3.0
3. Cal Raleigh (L)26.3%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)14.1%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)30.0%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)18.6%2.6
7. Mitch Garver (R)28.8%2.0
8. Colt Emerson (L)29.8%2.0
9. Victor Robles (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BOLBetOnline-167+128
BRBetRivers-165+123
BOVBovada-165+125
FDFanDuel-162+126

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Trey Yesavage's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.7% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ STL3
Jun 12vs AZ5
Jun 17vs NYM2
Jun 23vs MIL6
Jun 29@ MIL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.3%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R)17.6%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)21.4%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)25.2%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)24.4%3.0
6. Tyler O'Neill (R)26.4%2.3
7. Leody Taveras (R)26.1%2.0
8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.2%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-103-125
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-122-104
FDFanDuel-120-106

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Nick Lodolo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%
vs RHB25.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ COL2
Jun 10@ ATH3
Jun 17vs CLE6
Jun 23@ CIN10
Jun 30vs CIN7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)15.1%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.3%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.2%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.6%2.6
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.0%2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.4%2.0
7. Tim Tawa (R)24.2%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)19.9%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
BOLBetOnline+128-167
BRBetRivers+120-162
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+128-164
FDFanDuel+132-170

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB18.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ TEX3
Jun 12vs DET8
Jun 19@ HOU7
Jun 24@ CWS3
Jun 30vs TEX2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.8%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)19.4%3.0
3. Kyle Teel (L)28.8%3.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L)21.2%3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)30.1%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (L)22.0%2.3
7. Chase Meidroth (R)23.2%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)19.0%2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-143+110
BRBetRivers-167+125
DKDraftKings-168+131

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tanner Bibee's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.7%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2@ HOU3
Jun 13vs MIA6
Jun 19@ COL1
Jun 25vs SEA4
Jun 30@ PHI6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)27.4%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.9%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)21.8%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)20.8%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)18.0%3.0
6. Dylan Crews (R)24.6%2.4
7. José Tena (L)25.6%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)20.9%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline-105-123
BRBetRivers-108-122
BOVBovada-110-120
DKDraftKings+100-128
FANFanatics+100-130
FDFanDuel-106-120

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bubba Chandler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6vs CIN4
Jun 13@ MIN4
Jun 18@ KC2
Jun 24vs AZ3
Jun 30@ ATL9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.5%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)17.4%3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.2%3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R)17.7%2.8
5. Michael Busch (L)22.7%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)14.6%2.0
7. Ian Happ (R)29.3%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)25.2%2.0
9. Kevin Alcántara (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline+106-137
BRBetRivers+117-157
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+104-133
FDFanDuel+114-146

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Matthew Liberatore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.3%
vs RHB19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs ATH4
Jun 10@ LAA6
Jun 17vs DET5
Jun 23@ TOR6
Jun 29vs MIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)16.5%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)19.7%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)20.3%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.7%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)12.0%3.0
6. Ben Williamson (R)21.3%2.4
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)22.6%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)17.7%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline-102-127
BRBetRivers-107-125
BOVBovada-110-120
DKDraftKings-101-126
FANFanatics+100-130
FDFanDuel-108-118

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Peter Lambert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 1vs NYM7
Jun 8@ BAL3
Jun 14@ WSH2
Jun 20vs BOS6
Jun 28@ CLE6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nathan Lukes (L)15.6%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.4%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.9%3.0
4. Alejandro Kirk (R)15.8%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)23.7%2.4
6. Ernie Clement (R)13.1%2.0
7. Sean Keys (L)22.1%2.0
8. Luis Urías (R)20.2%2.0
9. Yohendrick Piñango (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers+100-134
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-102-124
FANFanatics+105-140
FDFanDuel-104-122

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Emerson Hancock's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB18.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs PIT5
Jun 13@ NYM4
Jun 19vs MIL5
Jun 24@ SD4
Jun 30vs STL1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Francisco Lindor (R)16.4%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)16.8%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)19.8%3.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)22.9%3.0
5. Carson Benge (L)24.1%2.3
6. Tyrone Taylor (R)21.6%2.0
7. A.J. Ewing (L)22.8%2.0
8. Luis Torrens (R)21.5%2.0
9. Brett Baty (L)27.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+120-156
BRBetRivers+120-162
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+122-156
FDFanDuel+122-156

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Martín Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%
vs RHB19.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 15@ ATH6
May 20@ AZ6
May 26vs AZ3
Jun 24vs ATH4
Jun 29@ AZ3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)17.9%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)22.0%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)27.2%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)16.6%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)18.2%2.3
6. Kyle Karros (R)22.0%2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)23.9%2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L)20.5%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BRBetRivers-165+123
BOVBovada-185+140
DKDraftKings-155+121
FDFanDuel-180+140

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.8% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%
vs RHB18.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6vs WSH5
Jun 12@ CIN3
Jun 17vs LAA5
Jun 23@ STL5
Jun 29vs SF1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brice Turang (L)25.0%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.6%3.0
3. Christian Yelich (L)26.9%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)16.3%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)25.5%3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)24.9%2.4
7. Gary Sánchez (R)18.8%2.0
8. David Hamilton (L)23.2%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOVBovada+110-145
FANFanatics+125-165
FDFanDuel+112-142

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%
vs RHB20.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.1 BF

Expected batters faced20.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ MIN3
Jun 12vs HOU0
Jun 17@ WSH5
Jun 23@ TB6
Jun 28@ CWS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)22.7%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)31.2%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)19.8%2.1
4. Brandon Marsh (L)23.7%2.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)16.4%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)18.7%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0
8. Justin Crawford (L)20.8%2.0
9. Garrett Stubbs (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+125-165
BRBetRivers+125-167
BOVBovada+135-180
FDFanDuel+136-174

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Luinder Avila's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB20.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 30@ CHC2
Jun 18@ ATH2
Jun 23vs BAL8
Jun 29@ SEA3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)22.4%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)19.6%2.7
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)24.3%2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)25.2%2.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)22.0%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)17.7%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)27.7%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)29.3%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOLBetOnline+117-152
BRBetRivers+120-162
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+122-156
FANFanatics+120-160
FDFanDuel+114-146

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Johnson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.2 BF

Expected batters faced13.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs CLE2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)24.3%2.0
2. Kahlil Watson (L)22.5%2.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)19.2%2.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)24.4%2.0
5. Gabriel Arias (R)29.6%1.2
6. Cooper Ingle (L)22.0%1.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.2%1.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)25.8%1.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)16.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chris Murphy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%
vs RHB17.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs ATL5
Jun 30@ CHC4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.5%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)18.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)21.2%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)15.1%3.0
5. Teoscar Hernández (R)23.2%3.0
6. Alex Call (R)18.1%2.4
7. Miguel Rojas (R)15.7%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (R)29.5%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOLBetOnline-135+105
BRBetRivers-148+110
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-133+104
FDFanDuel-156+122

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

JP Sears's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

May 25@ LAD3
May 31vs SF2
Jun 30vs MIA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)8.4%3.0
2. Casey Schmitt (R)21.4%3.0
3. Heliot Ramos (R)21.8%2.6
4. Rafael Devers (L)23.6%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.0%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)25.3%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)24.3%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)16.8%2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline+104-135
BRBetRivers+110-148
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings+116-148
FANFanatics-105-125
FDFanDuel+102-130

We project 3.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tanner Gordon's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB19.2%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.3 BF

Expected batters faced16.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 7vs CHC2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)20.8%2.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.7%2.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)16.7%2.0
4. Christian Walker (R)24.7%2.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)23.3%2.0
6. Cam Smith (R)22.6%2.0
7. Taylor Trammell (L)28.0%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)24.0%1.3
9. Christian Vázquez (R)18.9%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-110-118
BRBetRivers-120-112
DKDraftKings-111-114

We project 3.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Mason Englert's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.5% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB17.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.2 BF

Expected batters faced19.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 13@ PHI3
Apr 19vs NYM3
Jun 12@ SF5
Jun 17vs COL1
Jun 24@ NYM5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.0%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)18.1%2.2
3. Alec Burleson (L)16.2%2.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)27.9%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.1%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)18.9%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)21.7%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)18.9%2.0
9. Bryan Torres (L)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers+106-141
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings-107-119
FANFanatics+105-140
FDFanDuel+108-138

We project 3.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Javier Assad's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +10% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.