Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Sunday, June 21, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Tyler Tolbert
Tyler Tolbert (KC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Dustin May. The righty is running at .500 SB/PA against righties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a stolen base in about 9% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 3.8 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Dustin May. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) (92) vs RHP Chase Burns: an elite bat at .079.
- Samad Taylor (SD) (77) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: an elite bat at .057, hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (71) vs RHP Dylan Cease: an elite bat at .051, hot bat.
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) (70) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an elite bat at .063, hot bat.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (69) vs LHP David Peterson: an elite bat at .050.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) (67) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an elite bat at .054, hitter's park, hot bat.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (58) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: a high-volume bat at .043.
Platoon edges to target
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .092 against righties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .065 against righties this year.
- Nasim Nuñez (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .102 against righties this year.
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .094 against lefties this year.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .088 against righties this year.
Where the running game runs today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% running-game park). Top bat there: Jake Mangum (PIT) at 67.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.