Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, March 27, 2026)?

Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against KC. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, March 27, 2026: Chris Sale (~6.5 K), Emmet Sheehan (~6.6 K), Cole Ragans (~6.3 K), Michael King (~6.2 K), George Kirby (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, March 27, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, March 27, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 3–0

NYYaway

SFhomeTop matchup65 Final · 2–3

ATHaway

TORhomeTop matchup49 Final · 1–2

COLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup65 Final · 0–6

KCaway

ATLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–2

LAAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup67 Final · 5–2

DETaway

SDhomeTop matchup81 Final · 1–5

CLEaway

SEAhomeTop matchup70 Final · 4–5

AZaway

LADhomeTop matchup96

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate31.8% K/BF

vs LHB32.0%

vs RHB31.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)14.2%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)17.4%3.0

3. Lane Thomas (R)21.1%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)19.6%3.0

5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)21.7%3.0

6. Jac Caglianone (L)22.2%2.0

7. Jonathan India (R)20.5%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (R)22.7%2.0

9. Carter Jensen (L)17.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.3% K/BF

vs LHB28.0%

vs RHB28.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)21.4%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)20.8%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)21.1%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)21.8%3.0

5. Pavin Smith (L)27.0%3.0

6. Nolan Arenado (R)21.1%2.0

7. Carlos Santana (L)21.8%2.0

8. Alek Thomas (L)23.1%2.0

9. Jordan Lawlar (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate31.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB33.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)25.1%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)17.9%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)12.2%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)25.8%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)21.6%3.0

6. Eli White (R)23.6%2.0

7. Mauricio Dubón (R)14.8%2.0

8. Jonah Heim (R)20.7%2.0

9. Michael Harris II (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB28.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kerry Carpenter (L)23.6%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)19.8%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)21.4%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)24.9%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)25.0%3.0

6. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.4%2.0

7. Dillon Dingler (R)22.8%2.0

8. Matt Vierling (R)21.1%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)21.1%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)22.2%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)21.8%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)23.2%3.0

5. Bo Naylor (L)23.4%3.0

6. Rhys Hoskins (R)22.3%2.0

7. CJ Kayfus (L)25.3%2.0

8. Gabriel Arias (R)22.9%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)22.7%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)23.2%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)23.4%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)24.3%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)22.8%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)21.9%2.0

7. Bryce Teodosio (R)23.1%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.7%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.3% K/BF

vs LHB16.5%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness27.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ryan Ritter (R)29.6%3.0

2. Hunter Goodman (R)26.4%3.0

3. Willi Castro (L)24.1%3.0

4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.6%3.0

5. Brett Sullivan (L)25.0%3.0

6. Jordan Beck (R)29.9%2.0

7. Brenton Doyle (R)26.9%2.0

8. Braxton Fulford (R)29.1%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.7% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB26.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)15.1%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)23.8%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)13.7%3.0

4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)27.6%3.0

5. Ryan McMahon (L)29.6%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.3%2.0

7. José Caballero (R)30.8%2.0

8. Trent Grisham (L)25.6%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brendan Donovan (L)19.1%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)25.1%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.2%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)19.4%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)23.2%3.0

6. Luke Raley (L)25.1%2.0

7. Dominic Canzone (L)21.0%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)25.0%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.8% K/BF

vs LHB27.5%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Luis Arraez (L)3.4%3.0

2. Matt Chapman (R)24.8%3.0

3. Rafael Devers (L)23.4%3.0

4. Willy Adames (R)22.3%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)19.2%3.0

6. Heliot Ramos (R)23.2%2.0

7. Casey Schmitt (R)21.5%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)24.0%2.0

9. Harrison Bader (R)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)28.0%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)23.3%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)22.7%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)26.7%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)9.3%3.0

6. Lawrence Butler (L)24.6%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)28.8%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)13.4%2.0

9. Carlos Cortes (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.1% K/BF

vs LHB26.9%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)13.9%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.2%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)20.5%3.0

4. Jose Altuve (R)19.5%3.0

5. Carlos Correa (R)20.9%3.0

6. Cam Smith (R)26.2%2.0

7. Christian Walker (R)25.0%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)18.8%2.0

9. Joey Loperfido (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.9%3.0

2. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.8%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)22.2%3.0

4. Jackson Merrill (L)24.4%3.0

5. Miguel Andujar (R)19.8%3.0

6. Ramón Laureano (R)23.4%2.0

7. Gavin Sheets (L)21.1%2.0

8. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.8%2.0

9. Nick Castellanos (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)20.6%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)19.0%3.0

3. Mookie Betts (R)19.9%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)19.5%3.0

5. Will Smith (R)20.4%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)22.1%2.0

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)21.8%2.0

8. Andy Pages (R)22.3%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)29.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB17.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Griffin Conine (L)23.4%3.0

2. Agustín Ramírez (R)25.0%3.0

3. Jakob Marsee (L)22.1%3.0

4. Otto Lopez (R)18.0%3.0

5. Connor Norby (R)29.4%3.0

6. Graham Pauley (L)18.4%2.0

7. Xavier Edwards (R)17.3%2.0

8. Owen Caissie (L)22.0%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)15.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.5% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness16.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)18.2%3.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)12.7%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)14.7%3.0

4. Myles Straw (R)16.0%3.0

5. Alejandro Kirk (R)11.8%3.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)28.9%2.0

7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)22.0%2.0

8. Ernie Clement (R)10.7%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)16.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, March 27, 2026

Chris Sale (ATL) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, March 27, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K, with Emmet Sheehan (LAD) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Chris Sale

Chris Sale (ATL) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against KC. He's missing bats at a 32% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and KC has been around league average, going down 20% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (96) — about 6.6 K vs AZ: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Cole Ragans (KC) (95) — about 6.3 K vs ATL: a 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Michael King (SD) (81) — about 6.2 K vs DET: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
George Kirby (SEA) (70) — about 5.8 K vs CLE: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Mike Burrows (HOU) (67) — about 5.9 K vs LAA: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

COL is striking out 27% of the time in this spot — Sandy Alcantara is the arm to exploit it (65).
NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Robbie Ray is the arm to exploit it (65).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Mike Burrows is the arm to exploit it (67).
SEA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Gavin Williams is the arm to exploit it (52).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.9 strikeouts. Top play Chris Sale punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, March 27, 2026)?: Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.5 K against KC. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, March 27, 2026: Chris Sale (~6.5 K), Emmet Sheehan (~6.6 K), Cole Ragans (~6.3 K), Michael King (~6.2 K), George Kirby (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Friday, March 27, 2026?: Chris Sale punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.