Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, March 28, 2026)?

Kyle Bradish (BAL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against MIN. A 33% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Saturday, March 28, 2026: Kyle Bradish (~7.5 K), Dylan Cease (~7.2 K), Tyler Glasnow (~7.1 K), Sonny Gray (~6.7 K), Jack Flaherty (~6.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, March 28, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, March 28, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 5–6

TBaway

STLhomeTop matchup36 Final · 2–10

WSHaway

CHChomeTop matchup22 Final · 7–8

ATHaway

TORhomeTop matchup94 Final · 4–1

MINaway

BALhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–4

TEXaway

PHIhomeTop matchup51 Final · 5–6

BOSaway

CINhomeTop matchup82 Final · 2–4

PITaway

NYMhomeTop matchup25 Final · 3–4

COLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup62 Final · 9–11

LAAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup62 Final · 1–6

CWSaway

MILhomeTop matchup57 Final · 2–6

KCaway

ATLhomeTop matchup62 Final · 3–1

NYYaway

SFhomeTop matchup61 Final · 0–3

DETaway

SDhomeTop matchup80 Final · 2–3

AZaway

LADhomeTop matchup90 Final · 6–5

CLEaway

SEAhomeTop matchup67

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate32.7% K/BF

vs LHB31.5%

vs RHB31.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kody Clemens (L)22.0%3.0

2. Byron Buxton (R)22.8%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)19.9%3.0

4. Matt Wallner (L)25.2%3.0

5. Josh Bell (L)22.5%3.0

6. Ryan Jeffers (R)22.9%2.0

7. James Outman (L)36.0%2.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)21.9%2.0

9. Brooks Lee (L)15.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.3% K/BF

vs LHB26.7%

vs RHB31.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.4%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.4%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.8%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)26.1%3.0

5. Darell Hernaiz (R)17.4%3.0

6. Jeff McNeil (L)20.8%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)25.5%2.0

8. Andy Ibáñez (R)23.7%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate30.7% K/BF

vs LHB29.1%

vs RHB31.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)21.9%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)23.1%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)21.9%3.0

4. Pavin Smith (L)21.6%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)25.5%3.0

6. Alek Thomas (L)22.4%2.0

7. Carlos Santana (L)21.9%2.0

8. James McCann (R)25.5%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (L)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.1% K/BF

vs LHB28.1%

vs RHB27.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)22.0%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)22.8%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)24.3%3.0

4. Dane Myers (R)27.3%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)24.3%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)21.7%2.0

7. Noelvi Marte (R)24.6%2.0

8. Jose Trevino (R)16.9%2.0

9. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.5% K/BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB30.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake Cronenworth (L)23.5%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.1%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)20.8%3.0

4. Jackson Merrill (L)21.3%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.9%3.0

6. Gavin Sheets (L)22.5%2.0

7. Bryce Johnson (L)21.5%2.0

8. Nick Castellanos (R)23.0%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB27.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ryan Bliss (R)29.3%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)24.2%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.7%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)21.0%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)24.0%3.0

6. Brendan Donovan (L)21.9%2.0

7. Luke Raley (L)27.4%2.0

8. Leo Rivas (R)23.6%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.3% K/BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB28.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Allen (R)18.7%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)20.2%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)21.0%3.0

4. Carlos Correa (R)20.2%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)21.9%3.0

6. Cam Smith (R)23.8%2.0

7. Yainer Diaz (R)20.7%2.0

8. Jake Meyers (R)20.2%2.0

9. Joey Loperfido (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.7% K/BF

vs LHB26.5%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)21.4%3.0

2. Hunter Goodman (R)21.5%3.0

3. Willi Castro (L)24.1%3.0

4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.1%3.0

5. TJ Rumfield (L)20.4%3.0

6. Ryan Ritter (R)29.6%2.0

7. Brenton Doyle (R)24.7%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)22.0%2.0

9. Edouard Julien (L)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)21.9%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.6%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)19.8%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)21.2%3.0

5. Lane Thomas (R)23.0%3.0

6. Carlos Estévez (R)22.0%2.0

7. Tyler Tolbert (R)22.2%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)22.1%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)17.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB29.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jung Hoo Lee (L)20.1%3.0

2. Matt Chapman (R)22.8%3.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)17.0%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)24.3%3.0

5. Heliot Ramos (R)25.1%3.0

6. Jared Oliva (R)22.0%2.0

7. Harrison Bader (R)22.8%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)22.9%2.0

9. Casey Schmitt (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.9% K/BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB25.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)20.9%3.0

2. Colson Montgomery (L)25.8%3.0

3. Austin Hays (R)21.8%3.0

4. Munetaka Murakami (L)20.4%3.0

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)23.1%3.0

6. Miguel Vargas (R)24.1%2.0

7. Everson Pereira (R)26.7%2.0

8. Edgar Quero (L)23.4%2.0

9. Luisangel Acuña (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB26.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)19.8%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)22.4%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)20.5%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)27.6%3.0

5. David Fry (R)23.9%3.0

6. Daniel Schneemann (L)24.0%2.0

7. Angel Martínez (L)23.5%2.0

8. CJ Kayfus (L)21.2%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.7%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)21.9%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)15.7%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)22.5%3.0

5. Andrew McCutchen (R)22.4%3.0

6. Josh Smith (L)20.7%2.0

7. Josh Jung (R)22.5%2.0

8. Evan Carter (L)21.2%2.0

9. Danny Jansen (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)21.4%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.5%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.6%3.0

4. Adley Rutschman (L)20.3%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)23.6%3.0

6. Tyler O'Neill (R)22.5%2.0

7. Coby Mayo (R)24.2%2.0

8. Leody Taveras (L)22.4%2.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.2%

vs RHB25.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)22.2%3.0

2. Pedro Pagés (R)21.8%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)19.1%3.0

4. Masyn Winn (R)21.3%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)25.2%3.0

6. Ramón Urías (R)20.0%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)21.4%2.0

8. Jordan Walker (R)22.9%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)21.7%3.0

2. Trevor Story (R)22.7%3.0

3. Jarren Duran (L)21.8%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)24.0%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.5%3.0

6. Caleb Durbin (R)19.8%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)22.1%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)23.5%2.0

9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)21.7%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)20.1%3.0

3. Christian Yelich (L)21.2%3.0

4. Jake Bauers (L)24.3%3.0

5. Garrett Mitchell (L)22.9%3.0

6. Sal Frelick (L)19.5%2.0

7. Joey Ortiz (R)20.6%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)21.2%2.0

9. Brandon Lockridge (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)20.3%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)19.9%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)23.2%3.0

4. Jorge Polanco (L)21.1%3.0

5. Luis Robert Jr. (R)22.7%3.0

6. Brett Baty (L)22.7%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)21.0%2.0

8. Jared Young (L)28.4%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)22.6%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)21.7%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)21.7%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)25.4%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)23.0%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)22.1%2.0

7. Josh Lowe (L)22.5%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)27.5%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.1%3.0

2. Drew Millas (L)16.1%3.0

3. Luis García Jr. (L)20.1%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)23.2%3.0

5. Brady House (R)23.3%3.0

6. Jorbit Vivas (L)21.8%2.0

7. Nasim Nuñez (L)22.2%2.0

8. Andrés Chaparro (R)21.3%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.6%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)22.7%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.8%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)12.7%3.0

5. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.3%3.0

6. Adolis García (R)23.1%2.0

7. Brandon Marsh (L)25.6%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)23.8%2.0

9. Otto Kemp (R)29.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)23.6%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)20.4%3.0

3. Jorge Mateo (R)25.5%3.0

4. Austin Riley (R)28.1%3.0

5. Eli White (R)26.2%3.0

6. Ozzie Albies (L)16.2%2.0

7. Michael Harris II (L)21.1%2.0

8. Dominic Smith (L)21.8%2.0

9. Mauricio Dubón (R)12.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB16.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)22.2%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)27.7%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)21.8%3.0

4. Ben Rice (L)22.8%3.0

5. Giancarlo Stanton (R)23.6%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)22.7%2.0

7. José Caballero (R)20.9%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)26.4%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)21.3%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)19.9%3.0

3. Agustín Ramírez (R)20.7%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)15.2%3.0

5. Otto Lopez (R)21.4%3.0

6. Owen Caissie (L)24.3%2.0

7. Griffin Conine (L)29.3%2.0

8. Connor Norby (R)22.3%2.0

9. Graham Pauley (L)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)25.3%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)16.9%3.0

3. Mookie Betts (R)10.9%3.0

4. Will Smith (R)18.8%3.0

5. Freddie Freeman (L)19.6%3.0

6. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.8%2.0

7. Max Muncy (L)27.0%2.0

8. Andy Pages (R)22.5%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (R)28.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)21.6%3.0

2. Addison Barger (L)23.5%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)19.9%3.0

4. Nathan Lukes (L)21.7%3.0

5. Alejandro Kirk (R)17.0%3.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)19.5%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)11.3%2.0

8. Jesús Sánchez (L)27.9%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB28.5%

vs RHB17.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jared Triolo (R)22.1%3.0

2. Ryan O'Hearn (L)22.2%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)25.5%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)25.7%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)21.1%3.0

6. Brandon Lowe (L)28.6%2.0

7. Billy Cook (R)20.3%2.0

8. Henry Davis (R)24.1%2.0

9. Jake Mangum (R)15.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.2% K/BF

vs LHB16.7%

vs RHB16.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jonny DeLuca (R)21.3%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.0%3.0

3. Jake Fraley (L)21.4%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)22.7%3.0

5. Cedric Mullins (L)21.2%3.0

6. Chandler Simpson (L)19.6%2.0

7. Carson Williams (R)23.5%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)20.1%2.0

9. Ben Williamson (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.2% K/BF

vs LHB16.7%

vs RHB16.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Michael Busch (L)21.4%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)19.6%3.0

3. Ian Happ (L)26.0%3.0

4. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.6%3.0

5. Nico Hoerner (R)19.8%3.0

6. Dansby Swanson (R)21.3%2.0

7. Carson Kelly (R)20.1%2.0

8. Matt Shaw (R)21.3%2.0

9. Miguel Amaya (R)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate14.4% K/BF

vs LHB12.1%

vs RHB17.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dillon Dingler (R)22.2%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)19.8%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)20.8%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)23.5%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.8%3.0

6. Kevin McGonigle (L)19.6%2.0

7. Matt Vierling (R)21.1%2.0

8. Jahmai Jones (R)22.0%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)28.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Saturday, March 28, 2026

Kyle Bradish (BAL) is the top strikeout start on the Saturday, March 28, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K, with Dylan Cease (TOR) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Kyle Bradish

Kyle Bradish (BAL) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against MIN. He's missing bats at a 33% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and MIN has been whiff-prone, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Dylan Cease (TOR) (94) — about 7.2 K vs ATH: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) (90) — about 7.1 K vs AZ: a 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Sonny Gray (BOS) (82) — about 6.7 K vs CIN: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Jack Flaherty (DET) (80) — about 6.5 K vs SD: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Joey Cantillo (CLE) (67) — about 6.5 K vs SEA: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

SEA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Joey Cantillo is the arm to exploit it (67).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Cristian Javier is the arm to exploit it (25).
ATH is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Dylan Cease is the arm to exploit it (94).
COL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Eury Pérez is the arm to exploit it (62).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.7 strikeouts. Top play Kyle Bradish punched out 4. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Saturday, March 28, 2026)?: Kyle Bradish (BAL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against MIN. A 33% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Saturday, March 28, 2026: Kyle Bradish (~7.5 K), Dylan Cease (~7.2 K), Tyler Glasnow (~7.1 K), Sonny Gray (~6.7 K), Jack Flaherty (~6.5 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Saturday, March 28, 2026?: Kyle Bradish punched out 4.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.