Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, June 9, 2026)?

Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against PHI. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, June 9, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.5 K), Chase Burns (~6.3 K), Paul Skenes (~5.9 K), Nathan Eovaldi (~5.7 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, June 9, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

★ Plays of the Day PRO

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — starts where our projection diverges 1.25+ K from the book's line, the segment where our backtested edge concentrates. Overs and Unders alike, ranked by the gap (Δ).

Δ1.4Tomoyuki SuganoCOL vs CHCwe project 3.9 K vs the 2.5 lineOver 2.5-145

Δ1.3Stephen KolekKC vs TEXwe project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.5-125

Research signal — in backtesting our edge concentrated in the largest of these gaps, not across every start. Display only, not betting advice.

Final · 6–5

SEAaway

BALhomeTop matchup51 Final · 12–3

LADaway

PIThomeTop matchup67 Final · 3–4

BOSaway

TBhomeTop matchup51 Final · 4–10

MINaway

DEThomeTop matchup41 Final · 6–10

AZaway

MIAhomeTop matchup41 Final · 3–2

NYYaway

CLEhomeTop matchup36 Final · 2–3

PHIaway

TORhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–0

STLaway

NYMhomeTop matchup51 Final · 3–5

TEXaway

KChomeTop matchup53 Final · 5–6

ATLaway

CWShomeTop matchup30 Final · 3–7

CHCaway

COLhomeTop matchup28 Final · 1–10

HOUaway

LAAhomeTop matchup40 Final · 5–3

CINaway

SDhomeTop matchup71 Final · 6–3

WSHaway

SFhomeTop matchup22 Final · 5–7

MILaway

ATHhomeTop matchup38

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate32.4% K/BF

vs LHB31.1%

vs RHB31.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)30.0%3.0

2. Trea Turner (R)22.9%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.6%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)21.7%3.0

5. Alec Bohm (R)16.5%3.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)19.3%2.4

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.2%2.0

8. Adolis García (R)31.3%2.0

9. Steward Berroa (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-138+112

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-147+115

BRBetRivers-148+110

MGMBetMGM-155+115

We project 7.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.3% K/BF

vs LHB29.1%

vs RHB26.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)19.5%3.0

2. Jackson Merrill (L)23.8%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)22.3%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.7%3.0

5. Will Wagner (L)18.1%3.0

6. Samad Taylor (R)21.6%2.1

7. Bryce Johnson (L)24.2%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)22.4%2.0

9. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-152+114

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BRBetRivers-162+120

We project 6.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.0% K/BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB28.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Alex Call (R)19.5%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)20.0%3.0

3. Miguel Rojas (R)15.9%3.0

4. Mookie Betts (R)16.6%3.0

5. Santiago Espinal (R)20.0%3.0

6. Kyle Tucker (L)20.1%2.4

7. Ryan Ward (L)22.7%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)23.0%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-110-110

FANFanatics-115-115

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-119-108

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BRBetRivers-115-115

We project 5.9 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.1 BF

Expected batters faced25.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)28.1%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)22.4%3.0

3. Maikel Garcia (R)17.2%3.0

4. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)16.6%3.0

5. Salvador Perez (R)21.1%3.0

6. Jac Caglianone (L)26.7%3.0

7. Michael Massey (L)18.0%3.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)23.9%2.1

9. Tyler Tolbert (R)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+128-172

BOVBovada+130-170

BRBetRivers+125-167

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.4% K/BF

vs LHB29.1%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)22.5%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.9%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)21.8%3.0

4. Blaze Alexander (R)22.6%3.0

5. Leody Taveras (L)21.4%2.9

6. Coby Mayo (R)29.2%2.0

7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)19.7%2.0

8. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.2%2.0

9. Samuel Basallo (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-102-130

FANFanatics-110-120

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-105-121

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BRBetRivers-105-127

We project 5.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.8%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)16.0%3.0

3. Chandler Simpson (L)17.3%3.0

4. Ryan Vilade (R)22.1%3.0

5. Austin Slater (R)25.9%3.0

6. Cedric Mullins (L)17.4%2.2

7. Ben Williamson (R)22.7%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)17.9%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+120-160

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+122-156

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.9%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.7%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)28.1%3.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.0%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.0%2.8

7. Jimmy Crooks (L)24.6%2.0

8. Nolan Gorman (L)32.8%2.0

9. Nathan Church (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-142+116

FANFanatics-160+120

BOVBovada-145+110

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BRBetRivers-141+106

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)21.6%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)19.8%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)16.9%3.0

4. Jared Young (L)24.1%3.0

5. A.J. Ewing (L)27.1%3.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.4%2.7

7. Brett Baty (L)25.8%2.0

8. Mark Vientos (R)24.1%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

DKDraftKings+119-153

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BRBetRivers+115-155

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB25.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.6%3.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)16.4%3.0

3. Ernie Clement (R)14.3%3.0

4. Myles Straw (R)16.4%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.8%3.0

6. Brandon Valenzuela (L)21.4%2.3

7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)31.0%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)21.3%2.0

9. Charles McAdoo (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-132+100

FANFanatics-130+100

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-137+107

BRBetRivers-122-108

MGMBetMGM-135+100

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gleyber Torres (R)20.2%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.3%3.0

3. Dillon Dingler (R)18.9%3.0

4. Zack Short (R)23.4%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)26.2%3.0

6. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.4%2.4

7. Colt Keith (L)21.3%2.0

8. Wenceel Pérez (L)20.3%2.0

9. Zach McKinstry (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-118-112

FANFanatics-115-115

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-106-120

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BRBetRivers-108-122

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.8% K/BF

vs LHB27.2%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)17.4%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.1%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.9%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)21.8%3.0

5. Pavin Smith (L)23.6%3.0

6. Geraldo Perdomo (L)16.4%2.4

7. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)31.3%2.0

8. LuJames Groover (R)22.0%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-120-102

FANFanatics-125-105

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-114-112

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-104-129

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.4 BF

Expected batters faced19.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)27.1%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.3%2.4

3. Wade Meckler (L)20.2%2.0

4. Jo Adell (R)24.9%2.0

5. Trey Mancini (R)20.8%2.0

6. Oswald Peraza (R)24.4%2.0

7. Denzer Guzman (R)24.3%2.0

8. Jose Siri (R)24.8%2.0

9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)27.3%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.4%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)22.8%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)16.5%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)23.9%2.5

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)31.7%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)14.0%2.0

8. Luis Rengifo (L)13.8%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-105-115

DKDraftKings+107-137

BOVBovada-110-120

FANFanatics-110-120

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers-103-130

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Patrick Bailey (L)24.0%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)17.0%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)18.0%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)29.2%3.0

5. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.1%2.9

6. Angel Martínez (L)24.9%2.0

7. Steven Kwan (L)11.5%2.0

8. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.8%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-152+114

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-138+108

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BRBetRivers-150+112

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Colby Thomas (R)24.4%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)29.3%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)19.6%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.4%3.0

5. Max Muncy (R)24.1%2.4

6. Jonah Heim (R)21.1%2.0

7. Henry Bolte (R)29.3%2.0

8. Zack Gelof (R)24.6%2.0

9. Alika Williams (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-120-110

DKDraftKings-103-124

BOVBovada-120-110

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BRBetRivers-108-122

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.8%3.0

2. Miguel Vargas (R)21.1%3.0

3. Andrew Benintendi (L)21.4%3.0

4. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)21.5%2.8

6. Braden Montgomery (L)22.0%2.0

7. Randal Grichuk (R)22.3%2.0

8. Derek Hill (R)26.5%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-108-122

BOVBovada-110-120

FANFanatics-110-120

DKDraftKings-108-118

MGMBetMGM-110-118

BRBetRivers-108-124

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.9% K/BF

vs LHB16.3%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Blake Dunn (R)21.9%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)22.2%3.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)20.8%3.0

4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.3%2.6

5. Spencer Steer (R)23.2%2.0

6. Eugenio Suárez (R)27.1%2.0

7. Matt McLain (R)25.3%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)24.9%2.0

9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-132+108

DKDraftKings-112-114

BOVBovada-135+105

FANFanatics-130+100

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BRBetRivers-120-112

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)22.0%3.0

2. Willi Castro (L)25.1%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)18.6%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)25.6%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)20.4%2.8

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.9%2.0

7. Cole Carrigg (L)22.0%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)22.4%2.0

9. Edouard Julien (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-136+102

DKDraftKings-139+109

BOVBovada-135+105

BRBetRivers-130-103

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.0%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.6%3.0

3. Christian Walker (R)22.9%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)17.0%3.0

5. Jose Altuve (R)22.5%2.7

6. Cam Smith (R)26.2%2.0

7. Joey Loperfido (L)28.5%2.0

8. Jake Meyers (R)21.1%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-120-102

DKDraftKings-126-101

BOVBovada-125-105

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BRBetRivers-122-109

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)19.8%3.0

2. Corey Seager (L)21.3%3.0

3. Josh Jung (R)20.2%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.1%3.0

5. Wyatt Langford (R)20.9%3.0

6. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.5%2.8

7. Jake Burger (R)25.7%2.0

8. Evan Carter (L)23.0%2.0

9. Kyle Higashioka (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-144+118

FANFanatics-145+110

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-139+109

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BRBetRivers-155+116

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.0%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)21.5%3.0

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.2%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)16.0%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.0%2.6

6. Spencer Jones (L)22.0%2.0

7. Anthony Volpe (R)23.9%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)27.8%2.0

9. J.C. Escarra (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+100-122

FANFanatics+100-130

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+100-127

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BRBetRivers-105-127

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB23.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.0 BF

Expected batters faced19.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Casey Schmitt (R)19.6%3.0

2. Rafael Devers (L)27.7%2.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)14.9%2.0

4. Willy Adames (R)25.6%2.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.2%2.0

6. Bryce Eldridge (L)24.4%2.0

7. Matt Chapman (R)21.3%2.0

8. Daniel Susac (R)20.5%2.0

9. Drew Gilbert (L)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-102-130

DKDraftKings+123-157

FANFanatics+110-145

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BRBetRivers+108-143

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.2% K/BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.8%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)18.6%3.0

3. Ryan Kreidler (R)25.7%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)23.2%3.0

5. Austin Martin (R)21.6%3.0

6. Victor Caratini (L)18.5%2.9

7. Royce Lewis (R)24.9%2.0

8. Luke Keaschall (R)17.6%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-164+134

BOVBovada-170+130

DKDraftKings-142+112

BRBetRivers-165+123

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Victor Robles (R)22.1%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)19.4%3.0

3. Randy Arozarena (R)23.9%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)18.4%2.9

5. Dominic Canzone (L)23.8%2.0

6. Patrick Wisdom (R)31.0%2.0

7. Mitch Garver (R)21.8%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)21.9%2.0

9. Ryan Bliss (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-176+142

BOVBovada-170+130

MGMBetMGM-175+130

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB16.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.7%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)15.8%3.0

3. José Tena (L)26.8%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)19.6%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)17.9%2.6

6. Curtis Mead (R)21.7%2.0

7. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.9%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)18.0%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-105-115

DKDraftKings-113-113

BOVBovada-110-120

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-132-103

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.6% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB16.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)26.1%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)17.5%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.1%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.6%3.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)16.6%3.0

6. Mickey Gasper (L)20.5%2.9

7. Caleb Durbin (R)17.5%2.0

8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)17.9%2.0

9. Marcelo Mayer (L)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-102-120

FANFanatics-105-125

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+101-129

MGMBetMGM-105-125

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB17.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Gonzales (R)22.7%3.0

2. Endy Rodríguez (R)22.4%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)20.7%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.3%3.0

5. Marcell Ozuna (R)24.7%2.3

6. Davis Wendzel (R)25.0%2.0

7. Jake Mangum (R)20.2%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)20.2%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-138+104

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-139+109

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BRBetRivers-143+108

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.0% K/BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB18.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.2%3.0

2. Pedro Ramírez (L)22.0%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)22.9%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)18.2%3.0

5. Ian Happ (L)26.0%2.7

6. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.9%2.0

7. Nico Hoerner (R)10.8%2.0

8. Carson Kelly (R)18.2%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-148+120

FANFanatics-150+115

DKDraftKings-145+114

BOVBovada-150+115

BRBetRivers-165+123

We project 3.9 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.6% K/BF

vs LHB16.1%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Liam Hicks (L)12.5%3.0

2. Otto Lopez (R)17.9%3.0

3. Kyle Stowers (L)29.2%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)14.8%3.0

5. Javier Sanoja (R)15.4%2.5

6. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.8%2.0

7. Jakob Marsee (L)20.1%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Connor Norby (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+120-160

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+125-160

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BRBetRivers+120-159

We project 3.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.5% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB16.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)19.0%3.0

2. Mauricio Dubón (R)19.9%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)23.4%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (L)18.1%3.0

5. Dominic Smith (L)18.2%2.1

6. Austin Riley (R)23.8%2.0

7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)19.8%2.0

8. Jorge Mateo (R)23.1%2.0

9. Austin Wynns (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.6 BF

Expected batters faced13.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Eli White (R)20.5%2.0

2. Michael Harris II (L)19.5%2.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.9%2.0

4. Ozzie Albies (R)13.6%2.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.0%1.6

6. Dominic Smith (L)19.3%1.0

7. Austin Riley (R)28.3%1.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)24.1%1.0

9. Sandy León (R)26.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the top strikeout start on the Tuesday, June 9, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K, with Chase Burns (CIN) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against PHI. He's missing bats at a 32% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and PHI has been around league average, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Chase Burns (CIN) (71) — about 6.3 K vs SD: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Paul Skenes (PIT) (67) — about 5.9 K vs LAD: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) (53) — about 5.7 K vs KC: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (51) — about 5.6 K vs BAL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Payton Tolle (BOS) (51) — about 5.5 K vs TB: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Robert Gasser is the arm to exploit it (32).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Kai-Wei Teng is the arm to exploit it (40).
STL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Freddy Peralta is the arm to exploit it (51).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Lucas Giolito is the arm to exploit it (29).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.5 strikeouts. Top play Dylan Cease punched out 11. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, June 9, 2026)?: Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against PHI. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, June 9, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.5 K), Chase Burns (~6.3 K), Paul Skenes (~5.9 K), Nathan Eovaldi (~5.7 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Tuesday, June 9, 2026?: Dylan Cease punched out 11.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.