Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, June 7, 2026)?

Jacob deGrom (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against CLE. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, June 7, 2026: Jacob deGrom (~6.0 K), Emmet Sheehan (~5.8 K), Kevin Gausman (~5.8 K), Aaron Nola (~5.4 K), Cam Schlittler (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, June 7, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, June 7, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

★ Plays of the Day PRO

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — starts where our projection diverges 1.25+ K from the book's line, the segment where our backtested edge concentrates. Overs and Unders alike, ranked by the gap (Δ).

Δ1.3Michael McGreevySTL vs CINwe project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.5-160

Research signal — in backtesting our edge concentrated in the largest of these gaps, not across every start. Display only, not betting advice.

Final · 2–3

PITaway

ATLhomeTop matchup47 Final · 5–9

CWSaway

PHIhomeTop matchup83 Final · 1–6

BOSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup77 Final · 4–6

BALaway

TORhomeTop matchup85 Final · 4–5

SEAaway

DEThomeTop matchup60 Final · 1–4

TBaway

MIAhomeTop matchup25 Final · 5–0

ATHaway

HOUhomeTop matchup61 Final · 6–5

KCaway

MINhomeTop matchup60 Final · 3–5

CINaway

STLhomeTop matchup39 Final · 0–10

CLEaway

TEXhomeTop matchup100 Final · 12–4

MILaway

COLhomeTop matchup21 Final · 1–5

WSHaway

AZhomeTop matchup62 Final · 13–5

LAAaway

LADhomeTop matchup86 Final · 7–3

NYMaway

SDhomeTop matchup19 Final · 2–1

SFaway

CHChomeTop matchup43

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.9% K/BF

vs LHB26.3%

vs RHB27.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Travis Bazzana (L)15.4%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)15.7%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)16.9%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)30.3%3.0

5. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.2%2.8

6. Angel Martínez (L)23.3%2.0

7. David Fry (R)23.6%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)24.3%2.0

9. Stuart Fairchild (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+144-178

BOVBovada+140-185

MGMBetMGM+125-165

DKDraftKings+126-161

BRBetRivers+125-167

We project 6.0 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB25.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.5%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.3%3.0

3. Wade Meckler (L)19.6%3.0

4. Oswald Peraza (R)23.5%3.0

5. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.2%2.4

6. Jo Adell (R)24.6%2.0

7. Nick Madrigal (R)19.4%2.0

8. Jose Siri (R)26.7%2.0

9. Sebastián Rivero (R)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+104-128

FANFanatics-110-120

BOVBovada+100-130

MGMBetMGM-135+100

DKDraftKings-112-114

BRBetRivers-108-122

We project 5.8 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)23.2%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.3%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)17.2%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)21.2%3.0

5. Sam Huff (R)28.2%3.0

6. Colton Cowser (L)24.1%2.5

7. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.4%2.0

8. Jackson Holliday (L)21.3%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+118-144

FANFanatics+115-150

BOVBovada+115-150

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BRBetRivers+102-134

We project 5.8 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)14.9%3.0

2. Miguel Vargas (R)21.6%3.0

3. Edgar Quero (L)24.0%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)30.1%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)21.6%2.2

6. Randal Grichuk (R)22.7%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)18.5%2.0

8. Drew Romo (L)26.0%2.0

9. Derek Hill (R)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+114-140

FANFanatics+110-145

BOVBovada+110-145

MGMBetMGM+105-140

DKDraftKings+105-134

BRBetRivers+115-152

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.5% K/BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)27.2%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)17.2%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.4%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.0%3.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)16.0%3.0

6. Mickey Gasper (L)21.4%2.4

7. Caleb Durbin (R)16.5%2.0

8. Andruw Monasterio (R)23.5%2.0

9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)17.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+132-162

BOVBovada+130-170

MGMBetMGM+120-160

DKDraftKings+117-150

BRBetRivers+118-157

We project 5.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)17.8%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.7%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)20.5%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)21.5%3.0

5. Pavin Smith (L)24.8%3.0

6. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)31.1%2.9

7. Geraldo Perdomo (L)16.3%2.0

8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.1%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (L)26.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-114-114

FANFanatics-120-110

BOVBovada-115-115

MGMBetMGM-115-115

DKDraftKings-130+102

BRBetRivers-120-112

We project 5.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB17.5%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)25.4%3.0

2. Henry Bolte (R)22.8%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)19.8%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)16.4%3.0

5. Brent Rooker (R)27.4%3.0

6. Lawrence Butler (L)23.3%2.8

7. Zack Gelof (R)27.5%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)17.3%2.0

9. Alika Williams (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+124-152

BOVBovada+120-160

MGMBetMGM+100-135

DKDraftKings+119-152

BRBetRivers+125-167

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.2% K/BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Cole Young (L)17.9%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.5%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)14.5%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)21.4%2.7

5. Victor Robles (R)19.6%2.0

6. Rob Refsnyder (R)23.4%2.0

7. Patrick Wisdom (R)21.5%2.0

8. Colt Emerson (L)23.4%2.0

9. Jhonny Pereda (R)18.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-142+116

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-150+117

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Tristan Gray (L)26.2%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (R)19.8%3.0

3. Orlando Arcia (R)23.9%3.0

4. Kody Clemens (L)20.4%3.0

5. Josh Bell (R)23.0%3.0

6. Royce Lewis (R)22.8%2.1

7. Trevor Larnach (L)23.9%2.0

8. Luke Keaschall (R)18.0%2.0

9. Victor Caratini (R)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-125-106

FANFanatics-120-110

BOVBovada-130+100

MGMBetMGM-125-105

DKDraftKings-135+106

BRBetRivers-132+100

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.8% K/BF

vs LHB26.2%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)17.7%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)23.8%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.3%3.0

4. Ryan McMahon (L)26.0%3.0

5. Trent Grisham (L)20.8%2.6

6. Anthony Volpe (R)20.8%2.0

7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.3%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)26.6%2.0

9. J.C. Escarra (L)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+120-160

BOVBovada+120-160

MGMBetMGM+120-160

DKDraftKings+112-143

BRBetRivers+114-152

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.0% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB25.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.4%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.1%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)20.6%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)20.0%3.0

5. Dylan Crews (R)21.4%3.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)18.3%2.2

7. Keibert Ruiz (L)16.2%2.0

8. José Tena (L)27.7%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-150+122

BOVBovada-160+120

MGMBetMGM-165+125

DKDraftKings-147+115

BRBetRivers-152+114

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB25.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)22.0%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)18.1%3.0

3. Kyle Tucker (L)20.5%3.0

4. Max Muncy (L)23.5%3.0

5. Alex Call (R)19.3%3.0

6. Dalton Rushing (L)23.5%2.6

7. Ryan Ward (L)22.6%2.0

8. Miguel Rojas (R)16.6%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+106-140

BOVBovada+105-135

MGMBetMGM+100-135

DKDraftKings+106-135

BRBetRivers+106-141

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.6% K/BF

vs LHB18.7%

vs RHB26.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Matt Vierling (R)20.6%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.8%3.0

3. Gleyber Torres (R)20.0%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)25.9%2.6

5. Dillon Dingler (R)18.6%2.0

6. Zack Short (R)23.7%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.3%2.0

8. Zach McKinstry (L)19.4%2.0

9. Wenceel Pérez (L)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-104-128

FANFanatics-105-125

BOVBovada+100-130

MGMBetMGM-105-125

DKDraftKings+109-139

BRBetRivers+106-141

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.0% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Davis Wendzel (R)25.0%3.0

2. Nick Gonzales (R)17.5%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)21.5%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.3%3.0

5. Oneil Cruz (L)28.5%3.0

6. Tyler Callihan (L)19.6%3.0

7. Jake Mangum (L)18.5%2.1

8. Jared Triolo (R)26.5%2.0

9. Endy Rodríguez (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-140+114

FANFanatics-140+105

BOVBovada-150+115

MGMBetMGM-140+105

DKDraftKings-136+107

BRBetRivers-150+112

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.4%3.0

2. Michael Conforto (L)26.9%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)22.4%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)17.8%3.0

5. Ian Happ (L)25.9%3.0

6. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.0%2.4

7. Nico Hoerner (R)10.7%2.0

8. Pedro Ramírez (L)22.0%2.0

9. Carson Kelly (R)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+108-144

FANFanatics+105-140

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+104-133

BRBetRivers+100-132

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)20.2%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.9%3.0

3. Christian Walker (R)22.4%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)20.2%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)22.2%3.0

6. Jake Meyers (R)22.6%2.3

7. Christian Vázquez (R)19.2%2.0

8. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)20.7%2.0

9. Jose Altuve (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-136+102

FANFanatics-125-105

BOVBovada-135+105

MGMBetMGM-135+100

DKDraftKings-117-109

BRBetRivers-129-104

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.8% K/BF

vs LHB16.4%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Blake Dunn (R)22.2%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)22.5%3.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)22.5%3.0

4. Dane Myers (R)21.7%3.0

5. Spencer Steer (R)22.5%2.8

6. Will Benson (L)27.5%2.0

7. Matt McLain (R)25.7%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.6%2.0

9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-160+130

FANFanatics-160+120

BOVBovada-165+125

MGMBetMGM-165+125

DKDraftKings-163+127

BRBetRivers-165+123

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)19.9%3.0

2. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.0%3.0

4. Daulton Varsho (L)20.3%3.0

5. Ernie Clement (R)13.8%3.0

6. Brandon Valenzuela (L)21.2%3.0

7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)31.4%2.5

8. Andrés Giménez (L)21.8%2.0

9. Nathan Lukes (L)16.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+134-180

BOVBovada+135-180

MGMBetMGM+135-185

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Lane Thomas (R)20.1%3.0

2. Michael Massey (L)23.1%3.0

3. Maikel Garcia (R)18.8%3.0

4. Starling Marte (R)23.0%3.0

5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)22.1%2.3

6. Nick Loftin (R)17.0%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (R)23.4%2.0

8. Carter Jensen (L)22.7%2.0

9. Tyler Tolbert (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-115-105

BOVBovada-120-110

MGMBetMGM-135+100

DKDraftKings-122-104

BRBetRivers-115-115

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Dylan Smith (R)22.0%3.0

2. Rafael Devers (L)25.8%3.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)7.7%3.0

4. Willy Adames (R)24.0%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.7%3.0

6. Jonah Cox (R)22.0%2.1

7. Matt Chapman (R)21.1%2.0

8. Daniel Susac (R)25.5%2.0

9. Drew Gilbert (L)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+116-142

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+106-135

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BRBetRivers+102-136

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nicky Lopez (L)21.4%3.0

2. Josh Jung (R)17.9%3.0

3. Evan Carter (L)25.3%3.0

4. Justin Foscue (R)24.6%2.7

5. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.8%2.0

6. Joc Pederson (L)21.5%2.0

7. Jake Burger (R)24.3%2.0

8. Michael Helman (R)23.3%2.0

9. Elias Díaz (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+118-158

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+123-158

BRBetRivers+118-159

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.9% K/BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)15.9%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.7%3.0

3. Richie Palacios (L)20.6%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)19.6%3.0

5. Cedric Mullins (L)19.8%3.0

6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)22.1%3.0

7. Ryan Vilade (R)20.1%2.6

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)26.8%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+106-130

FANFanatics+100-130

BOVBovada+110-145

MGMBetMGM-105-130

DKDraftKings-104-123

BRBetRivers+114-152

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB25.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.3 BF

Expected batters faced18.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Liam Hicks (L)12.3%2.3

2. Otto Lopez (R)18.1%2.0

3. Kyle Stowers (L)30.1%2.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)14.9%2.0

5. Connor Norby (R)27.2%2.0

6. Esteury Ruiz (R)24.8%2.0

7. Jakob Marsee (L)19.7%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)15.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+102-136

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+109-139

BRBetRivers+104-137

We project 4.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)24.8%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)25.1%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)21.2%3.0

4. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.8%2.7

5. Gary Sánchez (R)22.7%2.0

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)25.8%2.0

7. Luis Rengifo (R)19.9%2.0

8. Sal Frelick (L)17.5%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-115-105

FANFanatics-120-110

BOVBovada-115-115

MGMBetMGM-120-110

DKDraftKings-117-109

BRBetRivers-105-129

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.5% K/BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)23.2%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)19.4%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)17.2%3.0

4. Jared Young (L)24.1%3.0

5. A.J. Ewing (L)27.8%2.7

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.3%2.0

7. Brett Baty (L)26.7%2.0

8. MJ Melendez (L)26.0%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-140+114

FANFanatics-140+105

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-140+110

BRBetRivers-143+108

MGMBetMGM-155+115

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.9 BF

Expected batters faced19.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)26.2%3.0

2. Trea Turner (R)18.3%2.9

3. Bryce Harper (L)22.4%2.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)26.7%2.0

5. Alec Bohm (R)18.2%2.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)18.3%2.0

7. Adolis García (R)23.7%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)20.3%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.3 BF

Expected batters faced16.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willi Castro (R)21.9%2.0

2. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.0%2.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)18.6%2.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)31.4%2.0

5. Kyle Karros (R)23.6%2.0

6. Jake McCarthy (L)21.1%2.0

7. Edouard Julien (L)24.5%2.0

8. Sterlin Thompson (L)22.0%1.3

9. Troy Johnston (L)18.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-154+116

BOVBovada-150+115

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BRBetRivers-162+120

We project 3.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.5% K/BF

vs LHB17.6%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.6%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.5%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.3%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)27.8%2.9

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)20.5%2.0

6. Bryan Torres (L)20.5%2.0

7. José Fermín (R)19.6%2.0

8. Nelson Velázquez (R)20.7%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+130-174

BOVBovada+130-170

DKDraftKings+126-160

BRBetRivers+118-159

We project 3.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.5% K/BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB26.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.7 BF

Expected batters faced13.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)26.0%2.0

2. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.1%2.0

3. Matt Olson (L)22.4%2.0

4. Ozzie Albies (R)13.5%2.0

5. Dominic Smith (L)19.8%1.7

6. Austin Riley (R)28.2%1.0

7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)24.1%1.0

8. Jorge Mateo (R)25.4%1.0

9. Austin Wynns (R)21.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.1 BF

Expected batters faced14.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)19.0%2.0

2. Jackson Merrill (L)24.1%2.0

3. Ty France (R)22.6%2.0

4. Manny Machado (R)22.6%2.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.6%2.0

6. Bryce Johnson (L)24.5%1.1

7. Jase Bowen (R)22.0%1.0

8. Samad Taylor (R)22.8%1.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)22.7%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, June 7, 2026

Jacob deGrom (TEX) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, June 7, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K, with Emmet Sheehan (LAD) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jacob deGrom

Jacob deGrom (TEX) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against CLE. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and CLE has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (86) — about 5.8 K vs LAA: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) (85) — about 5.8 K vs BAL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Aaron Nola (PHI) (83) — about 5.4 K vs CWS: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) (77) — about 5.6 K vs BOS: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Cade Cavalli (WSH) (62) — about 5.7 K vs AZ: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

CIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Michael McGreevy is the arm to exploit it (39).
COL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Shane Drohan is the arm to exploit it (8).
ATH is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Mike Burrows is the arm to exploit it (61).
NYM is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Randy Vásquez is the arm to exploit it (19).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.7 strikeouts. Top play Jacob deGrom punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, June 7, 2026)?: Jacob deGrom (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against CLE. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, June 7, 2026: Jacob deGrom (~6.0 K), Emmet Sheehan (~5.8 K), Kevin Gausman (~5.8 K), Aaron Nola (~5.4 K), Cam Schlittler (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Sunday, June 7, 2026?: Jacob deGrom punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.