Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, April 10, 2026)?

Chase Burns (CIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K against LAA. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, April 10, 2026: Chase Burns (~6.8 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.0 K), Tyler Glasnow (~6.0 K), Tatsuya Imai (~6.2 K), Landen Roupp (~6.1 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, April 10, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, April 10, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 2–0

PITaway

CHChomeTop matchup48 Final · 5–4

AZaway

PHIhomeTop matchup88 Final · 0–2

MIAaway

DEThomeTop matchup40 Final · 10–2

LAAaway

CINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–10

MINaway

TORhomeTop matchup15 Final · 4–0

ATHaway

NYMhomeTop matchup37 Final · 3–5

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup30 Final · 6–3

SFaway

BALhomeTop matchup60 Final · 5–11

CLEaway

ATLhomeTop matchup43 Final · 0–2

CWSaway

KChomeTop matchup53 Final · 7–3

WSHaway

MILhomeTop matchup25 Final · 2–3

BOSaway

STLhomeTop matchup32 Final · 2–5

COLaway

SDhomeTop matchup23 Final · 6–9

HOUaway

SEAhomeTop matchup67 Final · 7–8

TEXaway

LADhomeTop matchup77

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.9% K/BF

vs LHB27.6%

vs RHB27.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.0%3.0

2. Bryce Teodosio (R)22.7%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.1%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)28.5%3.0

5. Oswald Peraza (R)23.8%2.7

6. Jo Adell (R)22.2%2.0

7. Josh Lowe (L)27.4%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.3%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB29.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)20.1%3.0

2. Ildemaro Vargas (R)16.7%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (R)15.1%3.0

4. James McCann (R)21.6%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)19.5%3.0

6. Jose Fernandez (R)20.3%2.3

7. Tim Tawa (R)21.4%2.0

8. Alek Thomas (L)22.3%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.8%3.0

2. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.3%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)22.9%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)24.7%3.0

5. Joc Pederson (L)19.7%3.0

6. Evan Carter (L)20.8%2.1

7. Danny Jansen (R)23.4%2.0

8. Josh Smith (L)17.9%2.0

9. Sam Haggerty (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.6% K/BF

vs LHB25.8%

vs RHB25.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)24.4%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)27.8%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)25.1%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)17.2%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.2%2.1

6. Luke Raley (L)29.0%2.0

7. Cole Young (L)25.5%2.0

8. Dominic Canzone (L)20.2%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)30.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.7% K/BF

vs LHB26.8%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.4%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)21.9%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)20.8%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.7%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)26.7%2.8

6. Colton Cowser (L)25.1%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)24.3%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)24.4%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB25.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)21.0%3.0

2. Miguel Vargas (R)21.8%3.0

3. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.1%3.0

4. Edgar Quero (R)22.3%3.0

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)23.2%2.8

6. Colson Montgomery (L)23.4%2.0

7. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.3%2.0

8. Tanner Murray (R)22.0%2.0

9. Derek Hill (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.6%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.3%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)20.3%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)20.9%3.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)20.8%2.6

6. Adolis García (R)23.7%2.0

7. Alec Bohm (R)17.8%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)21.0%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB25.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)15.0%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)21.9%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)15.8%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)27.8%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)27.6%2.5

6. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)21.5%2.0

7. Miguel Amaya (R)20.1%2.0

8. Matt Shaw (R)20.3%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)16.1%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)21.4%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)18.6%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)27.2%3.0

5. Rhys Hoskins (R)24.9%3.0

6. Juan Brito (L)21.8%2.1

7. David Fry (R)25.7%2.0

8. Angel Martínez (L)21.9%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)17.5%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)19.0%3.0

3. Zach McKinstry (L)23.6%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)23.6%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)24.1%2.7

6. Kerry Carpenter (L)29.9%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.4%2.0

8. Wenceel Pérez (L)21.9%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)23.0%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)13.2%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)22.1%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)25.5%3.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)23.7%3.0

6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.9%2.0

7. Heliot Ramos (R)27.0%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)20.3%2.0

9. Harrison Bader (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness25.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Lawrence Butler (L)24.1%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)27.6%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)25.7%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)22.9%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)18.5%3.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)33.9%2.3

7. Max Muncy (R)27.2%2.0

8. Carlos Cortes (L)19.3%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)30.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)25.9%3.0

2. Caleb Durbin (R)20.1%3.0

3. Masataka Yoshida (L)19.2%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)24.8%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)24.8%2.9

6. Trevor Story (R)28.5%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)27.3%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)22.6%2.0

9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.5%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.4%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.5%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)23.8%3.0

5. Ramón Urías (R)23.7%2.4

6. Thomas Saggese (R)23.7%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)22.9%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)24.1%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.5%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.7%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)21.1%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)19.0%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)18.8%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)28.3%2.8

6. Michael Massey (L)14.6%2.0

7. Jac Caglianone (L)22.5%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)22.9%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ben Rice (L)25.3%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)22.1%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)18.2%3.0

4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)23.2%3.0

5. Amed Rosario (R)19.1%2.7

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)22.8%2.0

7. Randal Grichuk (R)24.5%2.0

8. Trent Grisham (L)21.8%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.4% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB25.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.5%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)23.8%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)19.6%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)16.9%3.0

5. Cedric Mullins (L)24.4%3.0

6. Jonny DeLuca (R)19.5%2.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)21.9%2.0

8. Taylor Walls (L)21.7%2.0

9. Nick Fortes (R)17.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.0% K/BF

vs LHB26.1%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)19.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)17.5%3.0

3. Jose Altuve (R)18.0%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)21.7%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)18.0%2.7

6. Carlos Correa (R)16.8%2.0

7. Cam Smith (R)23.7%2.0

8. Joey Loperfido (L)26.0%2.0

9. Taylor Trammell (L)28.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)21.5%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)16.7%3.0

3. Christian Yelich (L)21.4%3.0

4. Brandon Lockridge (R)19.8%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)24.3%2.6

6. Luis Rengifo (L)19.1%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)19.5%2.0

8. Blake Perkins (L)27.4%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)21.5%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.1%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)26.9%3.0

4. Austin Riley (R)25.4%3.0

5. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.3%2.9

6. Ozzie Albies (L)21.2%2.0

7. Dominic Smith (L)19.2%2.0

8. Michael Harris II (L)19.9%2.0

9. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Hunter Goodman (R)25.5%3.0

2. Tyler Freeman (R)19.2%3.0

3. Jordan Beck (R)23.1%3.0

4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.8%2.7

5. TJ Rumfield (L)21.9%2.0

6. Willi Castro (L)27.5%2.0

7. Brenton Doyle (R)26.5%2.0

8. Brett Sullivan (L)21.5%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB18.2%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.5%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)18.3%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)18.1%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)16.7%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)26.2%3.0

6. Teoscar Hernández (R)25.2%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)23.2%2.0

8. Miguel Rojas (R)20.5%2.0

9. Santiago Espinal (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB28.0%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Yorke (R)21.4%3.0

2. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.0%3.0

3. Jake Mangum (R)17.6%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)20.4%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)23.0%2.5

6. Oneil Cruz (L)22.5%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)23.2%2.0

8. Joey Bart (R)22.7%2.0

9. Billy Cook (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.4% K/BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)23.3%3.0

2. Daulton Varsho (L)22.5%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.2%3.0

4. Myles Straw (R)19.8%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)32.6%3.0

6. Davis Schneider (R)24.2%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)14.3%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)17.1%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.3% K/BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB26.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.9 BF

Expected batters faced14.9

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)24.8%2.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)20.0%2.0

3. Daylen Lile (L)21.0%2.0

4. Brady House (R)22.7%2.0

5. CJ Abrams (L)24.2%2.0

6. Joey Wiemer (R)24.1%1.9

7. Nasim Nuñez (R)22.3%1.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)20.3%1.0

9. Drew Millas (R)28.2%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)22.2%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)25.1%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.4%3.0

4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)20.8%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)25.9%2.9

6. Spencer Steer (R)24.2%2.0

7. Noelvi Marte (R)21.4%2.0

8. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.4%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)17.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)21.2%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)16.1%3.0

3. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.5%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)17.0%3.0

5. Otto Lopez (R)22.1%2.3

6. Owen Caissie (L)24.6%2.0

7. Connor Norby (R)23.8%2.0

8. Graham Pauley (L)25.9%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)17.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB18.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)23.4%3.0

2. Austin Martin (R)18.4%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)22.7%3.0

4. Josh Bell (R)25.8%3.0

5. Ryan Jeffers (R)19.0%3.0

6. Victor Caratini (R)20.8%2.0

7. Matt Wallner (L)26.7%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (R)21.7%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)24.5%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.5%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)18.3%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)22.8%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)18.4%2.5

6. Gavin Sheets (L)22.0%2.0

7. Miguel Andujar (R)21.0%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)23.1%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.3 BF

Expected batters faced19.3

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)20.2%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)20.7%2.3

3. Jared Young (L)20.7%2.0

4. Luis Robert Jr. (R)24.0%2.0

5. Brett Baty (L)23.9%2.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)22.9%2.0

7. Ronny Mauricio (L)22.4%2.0

8. Francisco Alvarez (R)20.2%2.0

9. Carson Benge (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, April 10, 2026

Chase Burns (CIN) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, April 10, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K, with Jesús Luzardo (PHI) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Chase Burns

Chase Burns (CIN) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K against LAA. He's missing bats at a 30% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and LAA has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (88) — about 6.0 K vs AZ: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Tyler Glasnow (LAD) (77) — about 6.0 K vs TEX: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Tatsuya Imai (HOU) (67) — about 6.2 K vs SEA: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
Landen Roupp (SF) (60) — about 6.1 K vs BAL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Kris Bubic (KC) (53) — about 5.8 K vs CWS: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 26% of the time in this spot — Clay Holmes is the arm to exploit it (37).
SEA is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Tatsuya Imai is the arm to exploit it (67).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Landen Roupp is the arm to exploit it (60).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Chase Burns is the arm to exploit it (100).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.1 strikeouts. Top play Chase Burns punched out 2. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, April 10, 2026)?: Chase Burns (CIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.8 K against LAA. A 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, April 10, 2026: Chase Burns (~6.8 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.0 K), Tyler Glasnow (~6.0 K), Tatsuya Imai (~6.2 K), Landen Roupp (~6.1 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Friday, April 10, 2026?: Chase Burns punched out 2.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.