Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, April 12, 2026)?

Nick Pivetta (SD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against COL. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, April 12, 2026: Nick Pivetta (~6.1 K), Jacob deGrom (~5.5 K), Freddy Peralta (~6.2 K), Cam Schlittler (~5.3 K), Chris Sale (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, April 12, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, April 12, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 2–6

SFaway

BALhomeTop matchup50 Final · 4–3

AZaway

PHIhomeTop matchup35 Final · 8–2

MINaway

TORhomeTop matchup83 Final · 9–6

LAAaway

CINhomeTop matchup85 Final · 1–0

ATHaway

NYMhomeTop matchup94 Final · 2–8

MIAaway

DEThomeTop matchup77 Final · 4–5

NYYaway

TBhomeTop matchup89 Final · 6–5

CWSaway

KChomeTop matchup68 Final · 8–6

WSHaway

MILhomeTop matchup69 Final · 9–3

BOSaway

STLhomeTop matchup39 Final · 6–7

PITaway

CHChomeTop matchup48 Final · 2–7

COLaway

SDhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–6

HOUaway

SEAhomeTop matchup72 Final · 5–2

TEXaway

LADhomeTop matchup98 Final · 1–13

CLEaway

ATLhomeTop matchup86

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.3% K/BF

vs LHB28.9%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jordan Beck (R)24.2%3.0

2. Tyler Freeman (R)19.1%3.0

3. Mickey Moniak (L)20.0%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)27.0%2.9

5. TJ Rumfield (L)22.3%2.0

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.1%2.0

7. Brenton Doyle (R)27.3%2.0

8. Brett Sullivan (L)21.3%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.7%

vs RHB28.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)25.2%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)19.0%3.0

3. Andy Pages (R)23.1%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)17.5%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)25.8%2.1

6. Alex Freeland (L)25.3%2.0

7. Dalton Rushing (L)23.1%2.0

8. Alex Call (R)18.4%2.0

9. Will Smith (R)18.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.0% K/BF

vs LHB26.3%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Lawrence Butler (L)24.1%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)26.7%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)24.7%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)20.7%3.0

5. Andy Ibáñez (R)21.5%2.5

6. Max Muncy (R)29.2%2.0

7. Jeff McNeil (L)21.8%2.0

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)21.8%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)29.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.0% K/BF

vs LHB26.4%

vs RHB27.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)14.0%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)24.3%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)19.7%3.0

4. Yandy Díaz (R)16.3%3.0

5. Jake Fraley (L)19.3%2.0

6. Cedric Mullins (L)24.0%2.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)22.3%2.0

8. Taylor Walls (L)20.9%2.0

9. Nick Fortes (R)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.2% K/BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Angel Martínez (R)18.7%3.0

2. Bo Naylor (L)20.8%3.0

3. CJ Kayfus (L)25.0%3.0

4. David Fry (R)23.4%3.0

5. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.2%2.5

6. Kyle Manzardo (L)23.9%2.0

7. Juan Brito (R)19.3%2.0

8. Daniel Schneemann (L)22.7%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.2% K/BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)22.4%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)24.4%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)24.5%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.4%3.0

5. Will Benson (L)27.4%3.0

6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)20.0%2.2

7. Spencer Steer (R)22.7%2.0

8. Noelvi Marte (R)20.9%2.0

9. Dane Myers (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.8% K/BF

vs LHB27.6%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ernie Clement (R)13.9%3.0

2. Daulton Varsho (L)21.2%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.2%3.0

4. Jesús Sánchez (L)22.8%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)32.0%3.0

6. Nathan Lukes (L)19.1%2.1

7. Eloy Jiménez (R)20.9%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)17.6%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.5 BF

Expected batters faced24.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)17.5%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)19.5%3.0

3. Colt Keith (L)22.7%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)23.0%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)22.5%3.0

6. Kerry Carpenter (L)29.0%3.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.0%2.5

8. Zach McKinstry (L)23.1%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.6% K/BF

vs LHB27.3%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)20.5%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)22.4%3.0

3. Aaron Judge (R)23.9%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.6%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.9%2.4

6. Amed Rosario (R)23.8%2.0

7. Austin Wells (L)23.9%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)27.3%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Austin Slater (R)27.3%3.0

2. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.9%3.0

3. Jakob Marsee (L)24.2%3.0

4. Otto Lopez (R)16.0%3.0

5. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.9%3.0

6. Connor Norby (R)19.8%2.2

7. Xavier Edwards (R)19.9%2.0

8. Liam Hicks (L)17.5%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.3%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brendan Donovan (L)18.3%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)24.5%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.3%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)18.2%2.4

5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.6%2.0

6. Luke Raley (L)30.9%2.0

7. J.P. Crawford (L)22.1%2.0

8. Dominic Canzone (L)20.7%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.0% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jose Altuve (R)17.7%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.8%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)20.4%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)18.6%3.0

5. Cam Smith (R)22.0%2.8

6. Joey Loperfido (L)26.7%2.0

7. Yainer Diaz (R)18.0%2.0

8. Taylor Trammell (L)24.3%2.0

9. Nick Allen (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.6%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)23.1%3.0

3. Brady House (R)26.2%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)16.7%3.0

5. CJ Abrams (L)17.6%3.0

6. Jacob Young (R)19.5%2.0

7. Jorbit Vivas (L)19.4%2.0

8. Keibert Ruiz (L)17.2%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Miguel Vargas (R)20.6%3.0

2. Chase Meidroth (R)24.4%3.0

3. Munetaka Murakami (L)30.6%3.0

4. Lenyn Sosa (R)21.9%3.0

5. Edgar Quero (R)21.3%2.8

6. Colson Montgomery (L)24.8%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)24.1%2.0

8. Luisangel Acuña (R)18.6%2.0

9. Dustin Harris (L)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.3% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)20.5%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.4%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)25.7%3.0

4. Austin Riley (R)24.3%3.0

5. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.1%2.0

6. Luke Williams (R)23.2%2.0

7. Kyle Farmer (R)21.5%2.0

8. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.3%2.0

9. Jorge Mateo (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)21.1%3.0

2. Jorge Polanco (L)18.3%3.0

3. Mark Vientos (R)23.5%3.0

4. Bo Bichette (R)21.7%3.0

5. Brett Baty (L)25.2%2.6

6. Marcus Semien (R)21.7%2.0

7. Carson Benge (L)21.4%2.0

8. Luis Torrens (R)21.3%2.0

9. Tyrone Taylor (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.4%3.0

2. Evan Carter (L)20.7%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)23.8%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)23.3%3.0

5. Joc Pederson (L)21.3%2.5

6. Danny Jansen (R)25.0%2.0

7. Josh Smith (L)17.1%2.0

8. Josh Jung (R)22.1%2.0

9. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.5 BF

Expected batters faced21.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kody Clemens (L)27.3%3.0

2. Austin Martin (R)21.1%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)15.2%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)21.3%2.5

5. Matt Wallner (L)33.8%2.0

6. Victor Caratini (L)16.6%2.0

7. Tristan Gray (L)22.4%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)20.8%2.0

9. James Outman (L)30.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.4% K/BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB18.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.2%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)23.0%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.9%3.0

4. Samuel Basallo (L)25.5%3.0

5. Johnathan Rodríguez (R)29.9%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)22.2%2.7

7. Colton Cowser (L)24.2%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)26.8%2.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)13.3%3.0

2. Scott Kingery (R)26.9%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)15.6%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)25.6%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.1%2.4

6. Carson Kelly (R)19.1%2.0

7. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.0%2.0

8. Dansby Swanson (R)23.4%2.0

9. Michael Busch (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)21.0%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)25.0%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)21.2%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)20.7%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.3%2.8

6. Nick Castellanos (R)21.8%2.0

7. Ty France (R)21.9%2.0

8. Bryce Johnson (R)22.1%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.4% K/BF

vs LHB18.7%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)23.3%3.0

2. Rafael Devers (L)22.8%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)22.9%3.0

4. Casey Schmitt (R)24.1%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)20.1%3.0

6. Jared Oliva (R)21.1%2.1

7. Daniel Susac (R)19.6%2.0

8. Jerar Encarnacion (R)21.1%2.0

9. Christian Koss (R)28.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.9% K/BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)27.1%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.2%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.0%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)18.5%3.0

5. Nick Yorke (R)19.5%2.9

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)24.3%2.0

7. Billy Cook (R)25.4%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)21.1%2.0

9. Joey Bart (R)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)21.8%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)17.2%3.0

3. Gary Sánchez (R)24.6%3.0

4. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.2%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)23.0%2.9

6. Sal Frelick (L)20.5%2.0

7. Brandon Lockridge (R)20.6%2.0

8. Luis Rengifo (L)20.8%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.1% K/BF

vs LHB17.1%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)26.1%3.0

2. Caleb Durbin (R)19.7%3.0

3. Jarren Duran (L)24.1%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)26.2%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)23.1%2.7

6. Trevor Story (R)28.3%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)26.3%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)24.0%2.0

9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.1% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)22.7%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.1%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.1%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)23.3%3.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)20.0%2.5

6. Adolis García (R)25.1%2.0

7. Alec Bohm (R)20.4%2.0

8. Rafael Marchán (L)21.2%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.7% K/BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)22.7%3.0

2. Josh Lowe (L)25.1%3.0

3. Jo Adell (R)20.3%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)25.6%3.0

5. Vaughn Grissom (R)21.7%3.0

6. Nolan Schanuel (L)19.9%2.3

7. Logan O'Hoppe (R)20.4%2.0

8. Oswald Peraza (R)26.6%2.0

9. Bryce Teodosio (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB18.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.8%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.1%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)15.2%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.7%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)25.7%2.9

6. Ramón Urías (R)21.9%2.0

7. José Fermín (R)21.5%2.0

8. Thomas Saggese (R)23.7%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.0% K/BF

vs LHB28.0%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.1 BF

Expected batters faced15.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.0%2.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.7%2.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.7%2.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)19.7%2.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)29.1%2.0

6. Michael Massey (L)20.4%2.0

7. Jac Caglianone (L)22.0%1.1

8. Isaac Collins (L)23.3%1.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)19.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.7 BF

Expected batters faced14.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ildemaro Vargas (L)18.6%2.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)24.0%2.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)15.0%2.0

4. Jose Fernandez (R)25.4%2.0

5. Ketel Marte (L)19.2%2.0

6. Luken Baker (R)23.8%1.7

7. James McCann (R)26.3%1.0

8. Alek Thomas (L)23.3%1.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (L)26.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, April 12, 2026

Nick Pivetta (SD) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, April 12, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K, with Jacob deGrom (TEX) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Nick Pivetta

Nick Pivetta (SD) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against COL. He's missing bats at a 29% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and COL has been whiff-prone, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 22 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Jacob deGrom (TEX) (98) — about 5.5 K vs LAD: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Freddy Peralta (NYM) (94) — about 6.2 K vs ATH: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Cam Schlittler (NYY) (89) — about 5.3 K vs TB: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Chris Sale (ATL) (86) — about 5.7 K vs CLE: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
José Soriano (LAA) (85) — about 5.8 K vs CIN: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

BAL is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Adrian Houser is the arm to exploit it (50).
ATH is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Freddy Peralta is the arm to exploit it (94).
BOS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Andre Pallante is the arm to exploit it (39).
NYY is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Drew Rasmussen is the arm to exploit it (75).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.8 strikeouts. Top play Nick Pivetta punched out 4. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, April 12, 2026)?: Nick Pivetta (SD) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against COL. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, April 12, 2026: Nick Pivetta (~6.1 K), Jacob deGrom (~5.5 K), Freddy Peralta (~6.2 K), Cam Schlittler (~5.3 K), Chris Sale (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Sunday, April 12, 2026?: Nick Pivetta punched out 4.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.