Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, April 22, 2026)?

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against TEX. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, April 22, 2026: Braxton Ashcraft (~6.0 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.9 K), Matthew Boyd (~5.7 K), Shohei Ohtani (~5.4 K), José Soriano (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, April 22, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 1–4

STLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup47 Final · 2–0

HOUaway

CLEhomeTop matchup65 Final · 1–6

CINaway

TBhomeTop matchup47 Final · 8–6

BALaway

KChomeTop matchup80 Final · 3–7

TORaway

LAAhomeTop matchup80 Final · 4–5

ATHaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

MILaway

DEThomeTop matchup67 Final · 8–6

ATLaway

WSHhomeTop matchup48 Final · 4–1

NYYaway

BOShomeTop matchup61 Final · 2–3

MINaway

NYMhomeTop matchup62 Final · 2–7

PHIaway

CHChomeTop matchup96 Final · 8–4

PITaway

TEXhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–8

SDaway

COLhomeTop matchup75 Final · 7–11

CWSaway

AZhomeTop matchup41 Final · 0–3

LADaway

SFhomeTop matchup81

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.1% K/BF

vs LHB26.9%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)20.6%3.0

2. Corey Seager (L)23.1%3.0

3. Jake Burger (R)26.1%3.0

4. Sam Haggerty (L)21.7%3.0

5. Josh Jung (R)19.8%2.9

6. Evan Carter (L)19.9%2.0

7. Kyle Higashioka (R)22.1%2.0

8. Andrew McCutchen (R)29.5%2.0

9. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.5% K/BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB23.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.6%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)23.6%3.0

3. Zack Gelof (R)26.8%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)18.9%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)15.3%3.0

6. Jeff McNeil (L)17.2%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)30.6%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)23.0%2.0

9. Austin Wynns (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate29.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB28.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.2%3.0

2. Trea Turner (R)18.2%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.6%3.0

4. Felix Reyes (R)22.0%3.0

5. Adolis García (R)20.3%2.1

6. Alec Bohm (R)17.2%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)19.1%2.0

8. Justin Crawford (L)20.6%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.3% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB26.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)26.1%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)10.6%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)19.9%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)27.1%3.0

5. Casey Schmitt (R)21.8%3.0

6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)15.3%2.0

7. Heliot Ramos (R)23.7%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)20.7%2.0

9. Patrick Bailey (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.9% K/BF

vs LHB27.5%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nathan Lukes (L)16.2%3.0

2. Ernie Clement (R)14.4%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.7%3.0

4. Davis Schneider (R)26.0%3.0

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)19.0%3.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)21.7%2.4

7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.4%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.6%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.2%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)20.6%3.0

3. Dylan Beavers (L)25.1%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)25.1%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.4%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)19.8%2.5

7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)23.3%2.0

8. Colton Cowser (L)27.3%2.0

9. Coby Mayo (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.6%3.0

2. Jordan Beck (R)24.1%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)28.3%3.0

4. Tyler Freeman (R)19.1%2.4

5. TJ Rumfield (L)20.6%2.0

6. Brenton Doyle (R)28.5%2.0

7. Kyle Karros (R)20.5%2.0

8. Willi Castro (L)28.7%2.0

9. Jake McCarthy (L)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.3% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)26.1%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)19.5%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.2%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)24.8%3.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.3%2.8

6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.6%2.0

7. Billy Cook (R)24.9%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)22.6%2.0

9. Joey Bart (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Turang (L)20.9%3.0

2. William Contreras (R)15.4%3.0

3. Jake Bauers (L)22.1%3.0

4. Gary Sánchez (R)23.0%3.0

5. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.2%3.0

6. Brandon Lockridge (R)23.5%2.2

7. Sal Frelick (L)16.7%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)19.8%2.0

9. Greg Jones (L)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.4% K/BF

vs LHB26.0%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)14.1%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)15.9%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)16.5%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)25.3%3.0

5. George Valera (L)19.2%3.0

6. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.0%2.1

7. Angel Martínez (L)24.0%2.0

8. Bo Naylor (L)23.6%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Bo Bichette (R)20.7%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)22.4%3.0

3. Luis Robert Jr. (R)21.5%3.0

4. Brett Baty (L)23.9%3.0

5. Francisco Alvarez (R)23.2%3.0

6. Mark Vientos (R)20.9%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)20.3%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)27.0%2.0

9. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)24.7%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)24.0%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)19.7%3.0

4. Trevor Story (R)25.8%3.0

5. Andruw Monasterio (R)23.4%3.0

6. Jarren Duran (L)22.1%2.9

7. Caleb Durbin (R)18.1%2.0

8. Connor Wong (R)21.9%2.0

9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.4%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (L)24.8%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.6%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)18.3%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)22.1%2.8

6. Mitch Garver (R)27.7%2.0

7. Rob Refsnyder (R)21.9%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)22.8%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.3%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)24.6%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.5%3.0

4. Giancarlo Stanton (R)24.6%3.0

5. Ryan McMahon (L)25.7%2.5

6. Trent Grisham (L)22.9%2.0

7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.9%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)25.8%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)26.2%3.0

2. Austin Martin (R)23.2%3.0

3. Josh Bell (L)19.5%3.0

4. Victor Caratini (L)17.7%3.0

5. Ryan Jeffers (R)23.2%3.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)18.3%2.1

7. Matt Wallner (L)29.5%2.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)24.2%2.0

9. James Outman (L)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.7% K/BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.9%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)21.3%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)18.7%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)17.2%3.0

5. Teoscar Hernández (R)27.7%2.7

6. Max Muncy (L)24.3%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)25.3%2.0

8. Hyeseong Kim (L)23.7%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)19.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.4%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)20.5%3.0

3. Brady House (R)27.0%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)15.1%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)17.2%2.1

6. Jacob Young (R)19.8%2.0

7. Jorbit Vivas (L)17.8%2.0

8. Joey Wiemer (R)27.4%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (L)16.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.0% K/BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB18.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)20.6%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)24.6%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)24.8%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)19.9%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)24.4%3.0

6. Nathaniel Lowe (L)21.6%2.0

7. Spencer Steer (R)26.6%2.0

8. Will Benson (L)25.3%2.0

9. P.J. Higgins (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.2% K/BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.6%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.3%3.0

3. Nolan Gorman (L)27.6%3.0

4. Ramón Urías (R)20.4%3.0

5. José Fermín (R)23.3%3.0

6. Nathan Church (L)23.9%2.1

7. Thomas Saggese (R)26.5%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)20.4%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)20.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)15.4%3.0

3. Jose Altuve (R)19.9%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)21.0%3.0

5. Isaac Paredes (R)20.0%2.4

6. Cam Smith (R)22.2%2.0

7. Daniel Johnson (L)21.8%2.0

8. Christian Vázquez (R)21.1%2.0

9. Brice Matthews (R)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)24.3%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)22.4%3.0

3. Jo Adell (R)18.4%3.0

4. Josh Lowe (L)22.4%2.9

5. Adam Frazier (L)21.9%2.0

6. Nolan Schanuel (L)19.1%2.0

7. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.0%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)20.4%2.0

9. Bryce Teodosio (R)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.5% K/BF

vs LHB17.5%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)21.5%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)21.1%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.6%3.0

4. Austin Riley (R)24.5%3.0

5. Ozzie Albies (L)18.6%2.8

6. Michael Harris II (L)19.8%2.0

7. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.3%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)24.1%2.0

9. Jonah Heim (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB17.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)21.7%3.0

2. Miguel Vargas (R)19.1%3.0

3. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.5%3.0

4. Everson Pereira (R)25.7%3.0

5. Edgar Quero (R)20.6%3.0

6. Colson Montgomery (L)24.8%2.3

7. Sam Antonacci (L)20.8%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)24.4%2.0

9. Andrew Benintendi (L)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.4% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB20.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)20.6%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)15.9%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)19.3%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)14.7%3.0

5. Agustín Ramírez (R)23.3%2.5

6. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.7%2.0

7. Owen Caissie (L)31.1%2.0

8. Graham Pauley (L)24.5%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)17.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.1% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB18.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)26.2%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.8%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)22.7%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)21.4%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.9%2.5

6. Gavin Sheets (L)21.8%2.0

7. Nick Castellanos (R)24.4%2.0

8. Luis Campusano (R)20.3%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.1% K/BF

vs LHB16.3%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nick Loftin (R)18.7%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.4%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.7%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)22.6%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)26.9%2.3

6. Michael Massey (L)20.3%2.0

7. Jac Caglianone (L)25.6%2.0

8. Lane Thomas (R)23.3%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.1 BF

Expected batters faced14.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)16.6%2.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)20.1%2.0

3. Ian Happ (R)24.1%2.0

4. Seiya Suzuki (R)20.5%2.0

5. Michael Busch (L)19.6%2.0

6. Dansby Swanson (R)23.9%1.1

7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)22.7%1.0

8. Miguel Amaya (R)19.4%1.0

9. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)27.3%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.9% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB16.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)2.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)19.3%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.3%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)15.4%3.0

4. Richie Palacios (L)23.1%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)22.6%2.8

6. Ben Williamson (R)23.8%2.0

7. Chandler Simpson (L)16.9%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)18.8%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.7 BF

Expected batters faced13.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)18.1%2.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)19.4%2.0

3. Colt Keith (L)21.8%2.0

4. Riley Greene (L)24.1%2.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)24.0%1.7

6. Wenceel Pérez (R)19.6%1.0

7. Matt Vierling (R)19.4%1.0

8. Javier Báez (R)21.7%1.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)22.2%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.8% K/BF

vs LHB26.5%

vs RHB15.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)4.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)21.0%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)22.8%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (R)18.5%3.0

4. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)14.7%2.8

5. Jose Fernandez (R)22.7%2.0

6. Nolan Arenado (R)19.4%2.0

7. Ildemaro Vargas (R)19.6%2.0

8. James McCann (R)21.4%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Wednesday, April 22, 2026

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) is the top strikeout start on the Wednesday, April 22, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K, with Logan Gilbert (SEA) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Braxton Ashcraft

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against TEX. He's missing bats at a 27% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and TEX has been around league average, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Logan Gilbert (SEA) (100) — about 5.9 K vs ATH: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Matthew Boyd (CHC) (96) — about 5.7 K vs PHI: a 30% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (81) — about 5.4 K vs SF: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
José Soriano (LAA) (80) — about 5.7 K vs TOR: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Michael Wacha (KC) (80) — about 5.6 K vs BAL: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Michael Wacha is the arm to exploit it (80).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Walker Buehler is the arm to exploit it (75).
CIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Nick Martinez is the arm to exploit it (47).
CWS is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Eduardo Rodriguez is the arm to exploit it (41).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.1 strikeouts. Top play Braxton Ashcraft punched out 5. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, April 22, 2026)?: Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against TEX. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, April 22, 2026: Braxton Ashcraft (~6.0 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.9 K), Matthew Boyd (~5.7 K), Shohei Ohtani (~5.4 K), José Soriano (~5.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Wednesday, April 22, 2026?: Braxton Ashcraft punched out 5.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.